Despite a looming El Niño, South Africa's maize exports have increased compared to last year, according to the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz)
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Despite a looming El Niño, South Africa's maize exports have increased compared to last year, according to the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz).
Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at Agbiz, said that South Africa’s maize exports this year are moving at a slightly faster pace than in the previous year.
“Each week, we continue to see notable export volumes to the Far Eastern countries and the Southern African region,” he said.
Sihlobo added that since the start of the 2026-27 marketing year in May, they have seen continuous maize exports, which now total 760,015 tons, out of the expected 3 million tons.
Sihlobo said that the expected maize exports of 3 million tons this year represented a 50% increase over the 2025-26 marketing year, which corresponds to the 2024-25 production season.
“Last season, the challenge was not the supply but weak demand in the Far Eastern countries, which have now returned,” Sihlobo said.
“We have seen exports to countries such as Vietnam, South Korea, and Japan resume in the new 2026-27 marketing year (which corresponds to the 2025-26 production season).”
Sihlobo added that in the previous year, the major buyers of South African maize were African countries, primarily Zimbabwe.
“African countries remain the notable buyers, but the return of Far East markets, which import large volumes, is encouraging.”
Sihlobo said that they want to see notable exports as South Africa has ample maize supplies.
“The country is expecting a record maize harvest of 17.3 million tons this season. If we look at the near-term activity, South Africa exported 50,998 tons of maize last week. About 60% went to Vietnam, 13% to Zimbabwe, and the rest to neighbouring countries. This is part of the 760,015 tons mentioned.”
Sihlobo added that the coming weeks will likely continue to present such encouraging maize export figures.
“The exports present no risk to domestic supplies. South Africa’s annual maize consumption is about 12 million tons. The expected harvest is 17.3 million tons, and there are also carry-over stocks from the previous season, which further boosts the available maize supplies.”
Sihlobo said that therefore, they don’t see challenges caused by the exports.
Sihlobo added that one thing South Africans can be assured of this year is a plentiful supply of maize.
“This is a comforting position ahead of what may be a challenging El Niño drought season from October 2026 onwards. The ample grain supplies are from the 2025-26 production season, which is at its tail end. But the season faced its own challenges, leading to a late start.”
Sihlobo said that it continued well, and the country is now expecting a record 17.3 million tons of maize.
“But its late start also meant that the harvest was delayed compared to usual. In the eleventh week since the start of the new marketing year in May 2026, the farmers had delivered to commercial silos about 7.8 million tons of maize. This is 10% behind the previous season’s pace.”
Sihlobo added that this implies there is a lot of work ahead, given the expected harvest of 17.3 million tons.
“Indeed, there is some on-farm storage that may slightly distort the deliveries. Still, the season is running late. It may as well be that the harvest will continue through to September, which will be just weeks before the start of the new season.”
Sihlobo concluded that another heartwarming point about this year is that most of the maize remains in good condition.
“Therefore, the late harvest hasn’t caused material issues for the expected ample maize supplies.”
Dawie Maree, head of FNB agriculture marketing and information, welcomed the increase in maize exports.
“We have a record harvest and large carry-over stock. The more we can export the better for our grain industry. Also earning much needed foreign income which is good for our balance of payments,” Maree said.
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