Agbiz has welcomed news that South Africa’s expected record maize harvest of 17 million tons has led to South Korea and Vietnam returning to buy maize from the country.
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South Africa’s anticipated record maize harvest is beginning to reshape export markets, with major buyers in Asia returning to source grain from the country after largely staying away during the previous marketing season.
The Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz) has welcomed renewed demand from South Korea and Vietnam, saying the development bodes well for the country’s ambitious maize export targets for the 2026-27 marketing year.
According to Agbiz chief economist Wandile Sihlobo, the return of buyers from the Far East signals stronger international demand for South African maize at a time when the country is expecting a record harvest of 17.1 million tons.
“Vietnam and South Korea are among the main buyers so far in the 2026-27 marketing year, which started in May 2026. In the previous marketing year, the 2025-26 marketing year, which ended in April, we did not see much demand from countries in the Far East.”
South Africa’s traditional export markets have historically been neighbouring countries, particularly Zimbabwe and other regional importers. However, stronger demand from Asia could help the country achieve a significantly higher export target this season.
“Amongst other things, the plentiful supplies in the world market were the main reason we didn’t see much demand from typical maize buyers in the Far East. They sourced affordable maize from other parts of the world,” he said.
Sihlobo said South Africa exported only 2 million tons of maize during the 2025-26 marketing year, falling short of the initial forecast of 2.4 million tons. However, the outlook for the current season is considerably more optimistic, with exports projected to reach 3 million tons.
The strong export outlook is underpinned by the country's bumper crop. With domestic maize consumption estimated at about 12 million tons annually, the expected harvest leaves a substantial surplus available for export markets.
“The maize harvest is forecast at 17.1 million tons, a record level,” Sihlobo said. “Bearing in mind that South Africa’s maize consumption is only 12.0 million tons a year, there are ample supplies for the exports. But the question in people’s minds has been whether we could see a stronger demand this year than last.”
While the harvest is running behind last year’s pace due to late-season rainfall, agricultural organisations say there is little reason for concern.
Francois Rossouw, CEO of Southern African Agri Initiative (Saai), said the slower harvest progress should be monitored but is not expected to affect overall production significantly.
“If the harvest is slower because of late summer rain, it can delay field work and may create some quality risks, but it does not automatically mean the crop is smaller,” he said. “A crop of 17.1 million tons is a strong positive for the sector and shows that production potential is still looking good.”
Dawie Maree, head of FNB agriculture marketing and information, said recent wet weather had delayed harvesting activities, but farmers were expected to catch up quickly.
“Farmers will catch up quickly with the drier, sunnier (generally) weather the country recently had,” he said.
Maree added that a record harvest does not necessarily mean good news for the grain farmer.
“This means downward pressure on prices and thus less income. For the livestock farmers, feedlots, dairy, pork, and poultry industries, it is good news because their major input (feed) is cheaper than last year,” Maree said.
“For the consumer, it is also good news because it should result in lower food inflation of basic staple foods.”
BUSINESS REPORT