With El Niño expected at the start of South Africa’s next planting season, agricultural experts are divided on the impact it will have on the sector.
Image: Joe Raedle / Getty Images / AFP
With El Niño expected at the start of South Africa’s next planting season, agricultural experts are divided on the impact it will have on the sector.
Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of SA (Agbiz), said that one of the major points of discussion this past week has been the likely impact of the expected El Niño on South Africa’s agriculture and consumer food price inflation in 2027.
Sihlobo added that the concerns are understandable, as the latest weather forecasts continue to signal that we are heading towards a severe El Niño. “Its arrival will coincide with South Africa’s 2026-27 summer crop season, which starts in mid-October.”
Sihlobo said that South Africa has benefited from a prolonged La Niña, which has supported the agricultural sector over the past few years. “Importantly, the rainfall periods have also been much longer than the typical periods. For example, in the 2024-25 season, the summer rain continued through April 2025. This is longer than the typical summer rains, which normally end in March.”
Sihlobo said that in the 2025-26 season, the rain continued through to May 2026, which is far longer than the typical rainfall cycles that end in March.
“Ordinarily, such longer rainfall periods would raise concerns about crop quality. However, in the areas that harvested the 2025-26 crops, we haven’t seen many quality issues. In fact, the Crop Estimates Committee’s latest projections were revised higher and still point to a record summer crop harvest for 2025-26,” he said.
Sihlobo said that the longer rainfall season benefited the country by improving soil moisture and the water table ahead of the 2026-27 summer crop season. “When the planting period starts in October 2026, farmers across South Africa will have better-than-normal soil moisture to begin with. Therefore, there may be sufficient soil moisture to support seed germination and crop development across the country, even as El Niño conditions likely result in below-normal rainfall.”
Sihlobo said that in the case of field crops, roughly 20% of South African crops are under irrigation, with the rest rainfed, which will depend mostly on available soil moisture and the timing of showers going into the 2026-27 season, even if they are below normal levels.
“For the livestock industry, the grazing veld across the country is in a fair condition, having benefited from the longer rainy periods in the 2025-26 season.”
Sihlobo added that there are clear factors here that may shape this upcoming season more than the last droughts did.
“While it is understandable that many people worry about the expected El Niño, forecasts of higher food price inflation may miss some of the fundamental issues that will shape the season ahead, such as improved soil moisture and available grain supplies. The drought is not ideal and may impose costs on farmers, but there are clear factors here that may shape this upcoming season more than the last droughts did," he said.
Dr Christiaan Mostert, from the University of Pretoria's agricultural economics department, said that South Africa should treat the expected El Niño as a serious agricultural risk, but not as an immediate food-security crisis.
“The latest international forecasts indicate that El Niño conditions are present and likely to strengthen into the 2026/27 summer rainfall period.
Globally, the agricultural sector is already on alert. El Niño does not affect all regions in the same way. It can cause drought in some production areas and excessive rainfall or flooding in others.
Mostert added that South Africa has been identified as one of the regions where agricultural drought risk is elevated, with drought probabilities above 50% across parts of Namibia, Botswana and extending into South Africa and neighbouring countries.
“For the coming South African planting season, my view is that the 2026/27 season is exposed but relatively well buffered. South Africa has useful buffers in the form of soil moisture, grazing conditions, dam levels and grain stocks. However, if the El Niño is severe and the summer rainfall areas experience poor follow-up rains, the pressure could build into 2027. The 2027/28 season could become more problematic if the current buffers are depleted and recovery rains are insufficient.”
Professor Simphiwe Madikizela, an economist at the University of South Africa (Unisa), said that if El Niño happens for three years continuously, then the setor will start worrying; for now, there is no need for panic.
“We have had very good rains and a great harvest that will last us for the coming few years, so our next planting system will not be impacted as we have moist soil at the moment, and in this winter, we got more rain than previously.”
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