The Citrus Growers’ Association of Southern Africa (CGA) in a statement on Monday said that they had revised its export estimate for the 2026 lemon season upwards.
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South Africa’s citrus industry has revised its lemon export forecast sharply upward for the 2026 season, buoyed by favourable weather conditions, improved fruit development and stronger-than-expected production across key growing regions.
The Citrus Growers’ Association of Southern Africa (CGA) announced on Monday that it has increased its export estimate from an initial forecast of 45.8 million 15kg cartons to 49.4 million cartons, representing an increase of 3.6 million cartons.
The upward revision comes despite concerns earlier this month that severe flooding in parts of the Eastern and Western Cape could significantly reduce export volumes and damage critical farming infrastructure.
According to the CGA, the improved outlook reflects the dynamic nature of the current season and the positive impact of weather conditions experienced in major lemon-producing regions.
“Although the season started later than usual, three significant cold fronts accelerated fruit colour development, contributing to improved readiness for export,” said the CGA.
“Increased rainfall in many lemon-producing areas has resulted in a positive growth curve, supporting larger fruit sizes, ultimately resulting in higher carton volumes.”
The CGA said that strong coordination, effective communication, and logistical capacity across the value chain will assist in managing the increased volumes.
“These efforts aim to ensure a steady and stable supply of fruit to global markets, preventing under- and oversupply at any given time. Packing activity remains concentrated in key regions, with Senwes, Patensie, and the Boland currently accounting for the bulk of volumes still to be harvested,” it said.
The association added that regions that have recorded the most significant upward revisions in their projections include Letsitele in Limpopo and the Sunday's River Valley in the Eastern Cape. It said that despite higher overall volumes, the updated forecast indicates a shift in the seasonal profile.
“The lemon season is expected to conclude more abruptly than usual, with a noticeable drop in volume around mid-July, rather than a gradual tapering.”
The CGA concluded that fruit quality for the season remains excellent, reinforcing South Africa’s reputation as a reliable supplier of high-quality citrus to international markets.
Dawie Maree, head of FNB agriculture marketing and information, said that any increase in exports is positive news for the industry.
“This means better earnings of foreign exchange and overall performance of the industry,” he said.
Maree added that lemons make up approximately 20% of citrus exports, compared to 45% for oranges.
“However, for certain areas, like the Eastern Cape, it is a major export product and thus important.”
Maree concluded that when agriculture exports increase, it helps South Africa’s trade balance tremendously.
“That is good for the agric sector in SA. It also shows confidence in our farmers and their products and is good for business and investor sentiment.”
Earlier this month, Business Report reported on South Africa's citrus industry facing mounting losses after recent floods in the Eastern and Western Cape damaging orchards, disrupted harvesting operations, and forced growers to revise export expectations downward at a critical stage of the export season.
The CGA warned that initial assessments indicate export volumes from flood-affected areas could decline by at least 5%, although the full extent of the damage is still being determined.
Dr. Boitshoko Ntshabele, CEO of the CGA, said producers are grappling not only with immediate crop losses but also with longer-term damage to farm infrastructure and production capacity.
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