As South Africa stands on the brink of potential climate upheaval, the time for green skills development is not just an economic necessity — it is an essential part of a more resilient future. With complex challenges ahead, the nation needs to be ready to seize this opportunity for sustainable growth.
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In a stark reminder of the volatile nature of climate change, South Africa is poised to confront the challenges posed by a developing Super El Niño event anticipated for the 2026/2027 season. This climatic phenomenon could usher in heightened risks of drought, floods, and significant disruptions to the agricultural sector — compound pressures that the nation cannot ignore. As highlighted by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is a 63% probability of experiencing a very strong El Niño between November 2026 and January 2027, raising alarms for summer-rainfall regions largely dependent on agriculture.
Amidst these looming threats, experts warn that agricultural-dependent economies in South Africa must bolster climate resilience measures. This urgency is underlined by statistics revealing that 16 of the past 21 El Niño events since 1961 coincided with below-expected maize yields in South Africa. The Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) has already projected a troubling 21% decline in the country’s summer grain and oilseed harvests amid the El Niño-linked drought scheduled for the 2023/24 season.
As South Africa grapples with these escalating climate challenges, progress on the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) is also gaining momentum. Earlier this year, an extension of a US$1 billion (R16.35 bn) debt guarantee from the United Kingdom and the African Development Bank (AfDB) was announced, aimed at supporting infrastructure development in coal-dependent regions such as Mpumalanga. This financial support is critical, as the nation seeks to pivot away from its reliance on coal by fostering green energy initiatives.
The African Union (AU) has placed green skills development at the forefront of its agenda, particularly in light of initiatives like Africa Skills Week 2025 and the AU-ILO Youth Employment Strategy. These programmes are designed to ensure workers are equipped with the skills necessary to adapt to the new green economy, correlating directly with the broader aims of Agenda 2063.
“South Africa is facing two pressures at once,” says Philip Hanly, Customer Success Director at New Leaf Technologies, a Johannesburg-based learning solutions firm. “The looming threat of a severe El Niño means agriculture and food security are genuinely at risk, while billions of dollars are flowing through the JETP to facilitate the transition away from coal.” The Western Cape Government has already estimated infrastructure damages from 2023 floods at a staggering R8.1 billion, further emphasising the stakes involved.
While there is palpable movement in policy frameworks and international funding, a critical issue looms: the substantial green skills gap in South Africa’s learning and development (L&D) sector. Stakeholders note that transforming JETP investments into tangible outcomes necessitates a well-trained workforce in renewable energy, sustainable agriculture, grid management, and climate adaptation.
Hanly underscores this gap: “You can approve a billion-dollar guarantee, but if there aren’t enough people trained in renewable installation and maintenance, the money sits there.” Countries that have adeptly integrated green skills into their L&D systems are witnessing robust results; LinkedIn’s Global Green Skills Report 2024 reveals that professionals with green skills enjoy a hiring rate 55% higher than their counterparts, with demand for green talent growing at over double the rate of supply in many cases.
Security in agriculture remains paramount. Effective green skills training not only fortifies key sectors against climate disruptions through resilience practices — such as improved water management and climate-adaptive farming — but also creates new livelihood opportunities for workers transitioning from traditional, carbon-intensive industries.
Philip Hanly is Customer Success Director at New Leaf Technologies.
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For South African companies focused on enhancing L&D capabilities, including New Leaf Technologies, the moment presents a unique opportunity to innovate targeted digital training solutions. Digital and blended learning approaches could serve as vital tools, particularly in regions with limited access to traditional classroom settings.
“Green skills training can’t be one-size-fits-all,” Hanly notes, elaborating that the specific training needs of a renewable energy technician in Mpumalanga differ vastly from those of a smallholder farmer in the Eastern Cape. Digital platforms offer the flexibility required to reach diverse populations efficiently and effectively.
To accelerate the aligned goals of JETP and AU initiatives, creating broader engagement across the South African L&D ecosystem by partnering with corporates, Sector Education and Training Authorities (SETAs), and government bodies will be key. “The current alignment of funding, policy attention, and climate urgency creates a timely window,” asserts Hanly. “If the L&D sector doesn’t build the delivery capability now, we risk another case of good policy and real money arriving faster than the country’s ability to use it.”
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