AI models predict a decidedly low chance for Bafana Bafana to progress to the World Cup knockout stages, requiring a win or draw against South Korea and a Czechia loss to Mexico. Picture: LARS BARON / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / GETTY IMAGES VIA AFP
Image: LARS BARON / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / GETTY IMAGES VIA AFP
There will be plenty of calculators out and frantic Googling around 5am on Thursday if Bafana Bafana fail to finish in the top two of Group A of the FIFA World Cup. South African fans have good reason to be nervous — even AI is not particularly confident about their chances.
Bafana remain bottom of Group A with a goal difference of minus two. They are level on points with Czechia, who have a superior goal difference of minus one. South Korea sit second on three points, while Mexico top the group on six points.
All that remains for Bafana is a final group-stage clash against South Korea.
At the very least, Bafana need a draw. That would move them onto two points and above Czechia if the Europeans lose to Mexico.
In that scenario, Bafana would still have a realistic chance of progressing as one of the tournament’s best third-placed teams.
A victory over South Korea would be the ideal outcome. It would take Bafana to four points and, assuming Czechia lose to Mexico, secure qualification for the next round.
More importantly, a win would almost certainly see Bafana finish second in the group, avoiding the nervous wait that comes with relying on a best third-placed finish.
Online search experts SEO Backlinks ran the different qualification scenarios through three advanced AI models to estimate South Africa’s chances of reaching the knockout stages.
Claude Opus 4.8 gave Bafana around a 22% chance of reaching the Round of 32. ChatGPT arrived at a virtually identical figure of roughly 22%.
SEO Backlinks’ own in-house model was slightly more optimistic.
All three systems independently rated South Africa at around a one-in-four chance of making the last 32, with the in-house model the most hopeful of the trio.
So while there is still a realistic path to the knockout stages, the odds suggest Bafana will need a favour from Mexico and a positive result of their own against South Korea to keep the dream alive.