Former Statistician-General Dr Pali Lehohla says the government has consistently turned a blind eye to the structural signs of rising unemployment
Image: Thobile Mathonsi/Independent Newspapers.
Former Statistician-General Pali Lehohla says the government has consistently ignored structural indicators of rising unemployment.
He shared these views during an interview on The Unpopular Opinion, hosted by journalist Mzilikazi Wa Afrika.
Lehohla, who led Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) from 2000 to 2017, is the country's longest-serving Statistician-General. He dedicated his career to embedding rigorous data at the heart of state planning and public policy.
South Africa’s official unemployment rate stands at 32,7%, while the expanded rate, which includes discouraged job seekers - reaches 43,7%. This represents a severe employment crisis, with youth and women carrying the heaviest burden in the labour market.
Lehohla noted that national policy has failed to shift despite decades of worsening economic exclusion.
“The numbers said unemployment is coming, but our policy response acted as if it wasn't," Lehohla said. "The numbers kept warning us, and now it has arrived, yet policies still have not changed to address the issue.” He added that the situation has only intensified.
According to Lehohla, this economic despair implies that less than 30% of the population will vote in the upcoming local government elections.
“When that happens, it does not matter who wins the vote. We are going to have walkouts governing South Africa, and that is a critical problem we are facing,” he warned.
Lehohla also attributed the economic stagnation to illicit financial flows, stating that South Africa has allowed R14,3 trillion to be siphoned out of the economy since 1994. Without this capital flight across mining, financial services, and manufacturing, he argues the country's economy could have reached R21 trillion.
“These losses come from our heartlands - Gauteng, Free State, North West, and the coal mines in KwaZulu-Natal,” he said.
Despite these challenges, Lehohla emphasised that South Africa still has a path forward. He suggested using the upcoming 50th anniversary of the 1976 Soweto Uprising as a major turning point. He said by embracing modern technology and available resources, he believes the current generation can actively steer the country toward a better future.
A separate report by FinMark Trust mirrors Lehohla's concerns, revealing that South Africa's structural unemployment persists despite decades of investment in Active Labour Market Programmes (ALMPs).
The report added that the country is also celebrated for its extensive social assistance system, but these two prongs of policy have operated in separate silos, with little effort to connect grant recipients to programmes that could help them build sustainable livelihoods.
The report added that for those furthest from the labour market, this disconnect is compounded by the fact that both systems are fragmented, complex, and difficult to navigate without direct, in-person support.
“Unemployment is not only about insufficient job creation or skills gaps. Poverty and exclusion create layered barriers; for example, food insecurity, poor education access, high transport costs, distance from opportunity, and the mental health toll of chronic stress that keeps millions locked out of work.
Social protection policy, including social assistance and welfare services, should mitigate these barriers, while ALMPs should enable market connection. But without integration, and without hands-on guidance to help individuals access and combine these supports, the most vulnerable remain excluded,” read the report.
The report stated that international evidence shows that multi-faceted and integrated programmes, combining social protection with labour market measures, are most effective in addressing these barriers .
“In-person support is a critical enabler: it ensures that recipients can navigate complex systems, access opportunities, and sustain livelihoods. In South Africa, emerging initiatives and pilot programmes are beginning to demonstrate how integrated approaches, anchored in in-person support, can connect vulnerable groups to economic opportunities and sustained livelihoods.”
The report added that these lessons highlight the urgent need for policy innovation that bridges the divide between social protection and labour market interventions, while embedding face-to-face support as a cornerstone of effective delivery.