Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz) said that Agriculture's largest exhibition in the Southern Hemisphere held last week in Bothaville indicated a positive mood but a mixed picture for Agriculture.
Image: Yogashen Pillay / Independent Newspapers
South Africa’s agricultural sector entered 2026 with cautious optimism, but mounting concerns over animal disease outbreaks, infrastructure failures and rising geopolitical risks continue to cloud the industry’s longer-term outlook.
This was the assessment from Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz) chief economist, Wandile Sihlobo, following last week’s NAMPO Harvest Day exhibition in Bothaville.
Sihlobo said the annual event once again highlighted both the resilience and vulnerabilities of South African agriculture, offering industry players an opportunity to engage openly on the sector’s future.
“The mood was generally positive at NAMPO, though people didn’t hide the fact that the South African farming sector faces some challenges. Foot-and-Mouth Disease in the beef and dairy industries, along with African swine fever in the pig industry, is among the pressing challenges these sectors face,” he said.
Despite these concerns, Sihlobo said conditions for field crops and fruit production remained favourable, with expectations of strong harvests across several subsectors.
South Africa’s 2025/26 summer grain and oilseed harvest is currently estimated at 20.8 million tonnes, up 1% year-on-year, while several fruit industries have also recorded strong export growth. The table grape sector also delivered positive export numbers despite major logistical challenges at the Port of Cape Town.
Figures released by the South African Table Grape Industry showed that inspected export volumes for the 2025/26 season reached 81.25 million cartons, representing a 3% increase from the previous year.
However, Sihlobo said infrastructure failures continue to place severe pressure on farmers and agribusinesses.
“Inefficiencies in logistics, poorly run municipalities, and unmaintained roads are among the issues that place pressure on the farming sector,” he said.
“This is something even visitors to NAMPO experience as they drive through North West and the Free State, noticing the decay of roads and towns in these provinces, which illustrate the inept governance and the pressure businesses are under as a result of these failures.”
According to Sihlobo, poor infrastructure governance has become increasingly costly for agricultural producers, particularly exporters who rely on efficient transport systems to move produce to international markets.
While improvements have been recorded at Durban and Eastern Cape ports, the Port of Cape Town continued to experience major operational disruptions through late 2025 and into 2026.
“The gains were clear in the robust agricultural exports in 2025, which reached a record $15.1 billion (around R250bn), or up 10% year on year,” Sihlobo said.
“But the Port of Cape Town faced significant challenges from the end of 2025 through 2026, and table grape producers felt the negative impact of these inefficiencies.”
He noted that some producers were forced to divert shipments to ports far from their production regions, increasing transport costs and operational complexity.
Sihlobo said cooperation between Transnet, organised agriculture and private-sector stakeholders had nevertheless begun to improve port performance and logistics coordination.
Outside the livestock industries, Sihlobo said sectors such as horticulture, wine, vegetables and poultry had experienced a more encouraging start to the year.
“Aside from the cattle and pork industries, which face various challenges, activity in field crops, horticulture, and wine has generally been upbeat, and expected harvests are plentiful,” he said.
“The poultry industry also had a better start to the year, supported by lower feed prices (maize and soybeans). Overall, 2026 is likely to show a mixed growth picture in South Africa’s agriculture, with the cattle and pork industries under pressure, while the other subsectors may perform better. The mood, as observed and discussed at NAMPO, suggests a year of mixed fortunes.”
However, he warned that significant risks were already emerging for 2027.
Sihlobo said escalating conflict in the Middle East could increase fuel and fertiliser costs, while forecasts of a possible El Niño weather pattern raised concerns over future drought conditions.
“The grain industry begins summer crop plantings in October 2026, and this is likely to coincide with higher input costs. The decisions farmers make in October will affect the fortunes of the sector in 2027 and into the start of 2028.”
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