New vehicle sales surge past pre-pandemic levels to clock nearly 600 000 in 2025

South Africa’s new vehicle market delivered a landmark recovery in 2025, with total sales climbing above 2019 pre-pandemic levels for the first time and reaching multi-year highs.

According to data released by the Automotive Business Council (Naamsa) on Wednesday, aggregate new vehicle sales rose to 596 818 units in 2025, reflecting a strong 15.7% increase compared with 2024 and marking the best annual performance in more than a decade.

This was after new vehicle market registered a 19.2% rebound for the month of December, with aggregate industry new vehicle sales reaching 48 983 units, an increase of 7 882 vehicles compared to the 41 101 units recorded in December 2024. 

Naamsa said the rebound was closely linked to improving macroeconomic conditions, including cumulative interest rate cuts of 150 basis points since September 2024, record-low vehicle inflation and improved household liquidity.

Passenger cars were the standout performer, with sales jumping 20.1% year-on-year to 422 292 units, while light commercial vehicle sales increased by 7.8% to 143 637 units. Medium commercial vehicles recorded growth of 5.6%, although sales of heavy trucks and buses declined by 3% over the year.

Naamsa said vehicle inflation eased to a record low of 1.5% in 2025, the lowest level since tracking began in 2008, supported by an influx of more affordable imported models, particularly from China and India.

Lower borrowing costs and improved access to credit also encouraged consumers who had delayed purchases between 2021 and 2024 to return to the market, driving pent-up demand.

"The welcomed upswing in new vehicle sales surprised to the upside, achieving sound double-digit growth," said Naamsa.

"This surge was further underpinned by political stability and a significant easing of vehicle inflation as well as the influx ofaffordable models contributing to the intensely competitive trading environment in the country." 

Brandon Cohen, chairperson of the National Automobile Dealers’ Association (NADA), said the solid year-on-year growth reflects a gradual but meaningful recovery in showroom activity as affordability improved and consumer confidence stabilised.

"The continued strength of the South African rand, together with lower fuel prices, bodes well for vehicle price stability, while favourable interest rates, lower inflation and a positive buying sentiment support near-term demand," Cohen said.

"The trend towards smaller and more affordable models reflects increasingly price-sensitive and value-focused consumers, supported by relatively strong finance approval rates. Access to affordable credit remains critical, and early indicators suggest that the positive momentum in the new vehicle market is likely to carry into 2026."

Vehicle exports also showed resilience, rising 4.4% in 2025 to a record 408 224 units and breaching the 400 000-unit mark for the first time.

Naamsa said growth was driven by strong gains in light commercial vehicles and trucks and buses, although passenger car exports declined by 8% compared with 2024.

The market ended the year on a firm footing, with December 2025 sales reaching 48 983 units, up from 41 101 units in December 2024.

Passenger car sales rose 20.3% year-on-year in December, while light commercial vehicles increased by 23.7%, reflecting a notable improvement in consumer confidence in the fourth quarter.

However, vehicle export sales in December 2025 declined by a significant 10.4% to 26 852 units compared to the 29 955 vehicles exported during the same month a year before.

Naamsa said the export landscape remains complex as global geopolitical tensions and trade barriers are assessed as tilted to the downside.

"Specifically, re-emergent tensions between South Africa and the US administration remain a source of potential volatility. The exclusion of South Africa from the 2026 G20 gathering and legislative moves proposing a two-year Agoa extension that might explicitly exclude South Africa are being monitored closely due to the industry’s significant export exposure," it said.

Looking ahead, however, Naamsa said it expects the positive momentum to extend into 2026, supported by lower inflation, further interest rate relief and modest economic growth.

The industry body forecasts new vehicle sales growth of between 9% and 11% in 2026, while cautioning that global geopolitical risks and trade uncertainties remain key downside risks.

BUSINESS REPORT