South Africa's tourism recovery: a mixed narrative in 2025

Lee-Anne Bac, Advisory Partner: Tourism at BDO SA unpacks the Tourism Trends Report and makes some startling discoveries.

As South Africa continues to grapple with the aftermath of the pandemic, the tourism sector shows signs of rebounding, but the numbers tell a mixed narrative. From January to July 2025, the country welcomed 5.85 million international tourists, a 14% increase over 2024. Yet we remain just 33,000 visitors short of our pre-pandemic peak in 2019. This apparent success, however, masks a host of deeper structural challenges that threaten our standing in the global tourism arena.

The competitive reality check

On the global stage, international tourism roared back to life in 2024, returning to pre-pandemic levels with a growth of over 12%. In stark contrast, South Africa’s recovery limped forward with a mere 5.1% increase, leaving us a notable 13% behind our 2019 visitor figures. Compounding our troubles is the fact that we have substantially ceded ground to competing African nations. Kenya reached 2019 levels in 2023, Tanzania surpassing them in 2022, and Morocco emerged as the continent's leading destination, recording a remarkable 17.4 million arrivals in 2024.

Reflecting on these figures from 2016, where Morocco welcomed 10.3 million visitors, South Africa recorded 10 million, and Tunisia counted 5.7 million, the current landscape shows Morocco in the lead, leaving South Africa in third place. The pressing question for stakeholders in our tourism sector: what has gone wrong?

The overseas market crisis

At the heart of the tourism recovery concern is our dismal overseas visitor performance, traditionally considered the crown jewel of our tourism economy due to high spending per visitor. In the first seven months of 2025, only 1.3 million overseas tourists visited, lagging 10% behind the levels of 2019 and 12% behind 2018—a significant shortfall translating to an approximate R4.3 billion loss in direct foreign spending. Over the entirety of 2024, the decline in overseas visitors meant a staggering R13.3 billion loss in foreign direct expenditure, presenting a dire picture as the nation argues for increased economic support.

Key overseas markets depict a troubling pattern: Chinese tourism is in disastrous decline, contributing merely 44% of 2019 levels with just 23,600 visitors in the first seven months of 2025, despite the introduction of the Trusted Tour Operator Scheme. India is also in decline, remaining 27% behind 2019 and showing a 9% drop compared to 2024. European markets show slight recoveries; however, France remains at 79% of 2019 levels, Germany at 87%, and Italy at 90%. Meanwhile, our largest market, the USA, only shows a 3% increase year-on-year.

African market success and opportunity

Fortunately, the African market has emerged as a beacon of hope in our tourism strategy. From January to July 2025, South Africa welcomed 4.55 million visitors from the African continent, surpassing 2019 levels by 118,000—an encouraging 3% improvement. This success is underpinned by effective visa policies and improved air connectivity, as demonstrated by Ghana and Kenya who have both seen significant increases in arrivals post-reform.

However, certain key African markets still present untapped potential, with arrivals from Angola, Nigeria, Egypt, and Uganda lagging considerably compared to 2019 levels.

Cape Town's strategic victory

The Cape Town Air Access Strategy stands out as a compelling example of how targeted, strategic interventions can yield impressive results. For the first seven months of 2025, Cape Town International Airport exceeded pre-pandemic overseas arrivals by 21%, whereas OR Tambo International Airport was left trailing at 21% below 2019 figures. While it is apparent that Cape Town has successfully shifted its tourist traffic, the remaining structural challenges must be urgently addressed to foster overall growth in South Africa’s tourism landscape.

Hotel performance reflects market realities

Hotel performance indicators further paint a picture of the industry's ongoing transformation. Five-star hotels have struggled slightly, with occupancy dipping from 64% to 62% year-on-year. They still represent the strongest segment; Cape Town's five-star properties have seen average room rates soar 41% above 2019 levels in real terms. Conversely, Sandton's five-star sector stutters, with year-on-year revenue per available room (RevPAR) having sunk to R1,100—20% lower in real terms than in 2019.

In contrast, the four-star and three-star hotels outside of Cape Town face significant challenges, with three-star properties especially hard-hit, reporting a significant real decline in RevPAR across regions.

Strategic imperatives for recovery

The data clearly indicates that tourism’s traditional models have fundamentally transformed. With previously unrecognised destinations on the rise, we find ourselves needing to redefine our competitive strategies. Key actions required include:

• Brand South Africa Campaign: We must undertake a coordinated national effort to bolster South Africa’s global image and combat negative perceptions that deter tourism.
• Air Access Development Fund: Establish a comprehensive strategy to enhance connectivity, particularly to underserved regional and international markets.
• Address Crime and Urban Decay: Initiate public-private-community partnerships focused on urban renewal to make our cities welcoming.
• Economic Growth Focus: Emphasise overall economic development to stimulate business tourism.
• Welcoming Environment: Create systematic approaches to ensure the country's warm, inviting culture is experienced uniformly.
• Product Innovation: Invest in creating diverse tourism products that offer unique experiences and ensure a skilled workforce.

Most critically, the tourism sector must recognise that it operates within a broader economic context. Economic solutions must transcend sectoral boundaries. To reignite our tourism sector, we must also address prevailing issues in manufacturing, energy shortages, and governance challenges.

With the multiplier effect of tourism on job creation, foreign exchange earnings, and regional development, it cannot be overlooked as a critical driver of South Africa’s economic recovery. The findings make it clear: while our competitors surge ahead, South Africa's tourism renaissance remains stubbornly incomplete. The successes we have seen in the African market and Cape Town’s initiatives illustrate that strategic, structured interventions yield results. Now, we must summon the political will and collective commitment required to extend these successes across the nation.

The time has come for South Africa not only to adapt but to thrive in the new market reality, or risk losing the growth that rightfully belongs to us.