Somalia’s Oil Discovery: Is this an energy boon or a resource curse?
From The Barrel
THE discovery of oil in Somalia is back in the news, and not for the first time.
Image: Facebook
THE discovery of oil in Somalia is back in the news, and not for the first time. The geological structures that host the abnormalities signifying the presence of hydrocarbons, both onshore and offshore, were confirmed in the 1950s.
Recently, Turkiye has announced the certification of large quantities of crude oil reserves in one oil well off the coast of the Somali mainland. The implications of the hydrocarbon reserve reassessment for Somalia are so significant that the country may be ranked alongside Kuwait or, indeed, even fourth in the world.
It is not what the discovery of oil is going to do for Somalia. The consequences of such discovery could be determined by what the fate of a declining US hegemony turns out to be in the long-drawn battle of tariff attrition with China.
A very prominent example typified by the unipolar lexicon is a phenomenon derisively referred to as “resource curse”. It suggests a potpourri of a thick reviling stew, made up of a combination of race, corruption and a bungling administrative ineptitude. A government could be corrupt and depressingly inept; however, if it doesn’t portend the qualifying race criterion, notwithstanding its abundant resources, it could not be tarred with the damning “resource curse” brush.
While the Justin Trudeau government in Canada was resource-rich, corrupt and mind-numbingly inept, fitting the epithet perfectly, it could not be branded as such. The United States, with its electioneering schemes up for sale to the highest bidder, is not far from that statistic, whether above Ottawa or trailing not too far behind it.
Somalia may, as the collective West policy think tanks seem to suggest, be affected by the dreaded resource curse. And such a curse, as it is said to afflict Venezuela or Iraq or Iran, for that matter, has one quick remedy. It would be a military airstrike or regime change, whichever fits the patient. And as the circumstances permit, one may be a precursor to the other’s inevitable sequel.
On February 2, 2025, the US launched airstrikes on the Somali breakaway Puntland province, ostensibly in pursuit of an ISIS offshoot in the Horn of Africa. But then again, it is a long line of US presidents who have had their sights trained on the Gulf of Aden.
From Bill Clinton in 1991 to Trump’s first term, the objective was clear. This is to encourage those territories subject to the Strait of Bab-el Mandeb to break away from the federation, pursuant to which the American firepower would be concentrated therearound. This Northern part of Somalia, where, incidentally, Puntland is located, provides proximity directly across Yemen, a chess manoeuvre whose strategic calculus is not too hard to fathom.
It just so happens that the US recognises Somaliland diplomatically, and Puntland has a defence agreement with the US, allowing Joe Biden to deploy hundreds more US troops in that territory.
Donald J Trump had his own opinion on how to execute these complicated empire games. First, he had to see the settling in of Ahmed al-Sharaa, the president of Syria, who was inaugurated 19 days before Trump took office for the second stint.
As former deputy head of ISIS, going by the nom-de-guerre “Abu Mohammed al-Jolani”, and leader of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, a Syrian rebel group, he massacred too many bodies on his way to the top, yet was feted royally by Donald J. Trump in the sanctum of the Oval Office.
It is somewhat paradoxical that to date, a succession of US presidents detest the generality of the ISIS and al-Qaeda followership but are smugly besotted by their leaders. Strange lot indeed. Much the same way as US presidents do not like Muslims, coupled with their legendary disdain for the Chinese. But somehow, they love Chinese Muslims!
So, 12 days into his inauguration for the second term, Trump authorised airstrikes against any Somali who insisted that the authority to issue oil permits remained an exclusive preserve of the Somali Federal government. Or, as the US State Department would brand such groundswell inclination, al Qaeda affiliated, not unlike all fishing boats in the Caribbean as drug smugglers.
And in so doing, Trump confirms the hilarity of the mantra that in the US, whomever you vote for, you get John McCain!
The most pernicious effect of the balkanisation of Somalia is illustrated by the dispute associated with the scale and extent of block SL 18, which is located in the Sool region, an area claimed by three abutting states, Somaliland, Puntland and Khutamo State. While SL 18 was awarded by the Government of Somaliland to DNO International, a Norwegian company, in 2013, the area in which the block lies, the Nugaal Valley Basin, had already been sold to Horn Petroleum a year earlier.
Shell and ConocoPhillips also claim exploratory rights over the same area since the 1980s. Antonio Gremschi had it best foretold. Paraphrased, he philosophised that the past is not quite dead, nor is the future born yet. This is the age of monsters!
The decapitation of the Somalian sovereignty into infinitesimal breakaway regions, or colloquially, its Gazafication, has begun in earnest. Aside from the much-publicised semi-autonomous regions of Somaliland and Puntland, there are other significant but lesser-known rebel territories.
There is Galmudug, which is in the centre of Somalia. Notwithstanding the fact that it is a provincial administration within the federation, it has somehow arrogated to itself the power to issue oil licences. In 2013, the state government signed an exploration deal with Petro Quest Africa, an affiliate of US-based Liberty Petroleum.
There is also Himan, Heeb and the recently established Jubbaland administration in Southern Somalia. The patriots of Somalia, who have been reared to dream of a single, united, religiously tolerant and prosperous Somalia, who are fervent adherents of a federalist motherland, were further disturbed by the establishment of the Khatumo State of Somaliland in 2012.
Such proliferation of semi-autonomous regions tends to betray the idealism and sacrifices of the most iconic figure of Somali nationhood, Sayyid Mohammed Abdullah Hassan. Known as the Mad Mullah by the British colonisers, he is regarded as the father of Somali nationalism, a fierce campaigner against colonialism, a devout Muslim, a poet and a leader of dervishes in Somalia.
His legacy has become too heavy for Somali posterity to bear. Post his indefatigable struggles against the British, the Italians and the Ethiopians, every generation of the Somalis and its burdened conscience is confronted with the probing words of Franz Fanon.
Every generation must, out of relative opacity, discover its mission, fulfil it or betray it. Whoever answers first, al-Shabaab or the breakaway regions, only time will pronounce on the righteousness of their response.
Somalia, just as its kin Sudan, is an extreme experiment, indeed a rare test case of the final moments of the US hegemony’s ability to cling on. The final act of the passing of the baton from Brettonwoods to multipolarity is proving more tumultuous than ever contemplated. The image of a Somalia characterised by a belligerent Farah Aidid and a shot down Black Hawk chopper spinning out of control in billowing black smoke is gone forever.
However, whether or not the extent of oil discovered in Somalia is as projected remains moot. And that’s the point. It is not the contestation whether or not Somalia has discovered hydrocarbon deposits on their continental shelf in prodigious quantities, but whether such discovery is socially, economically and globally impactful enough either in the short or long term.
* Ambassador Bheki Gila is a Barrister-at-Law.
** The views expressed here do not reflect those of the Sunday Independent, Independent Media, or IOL.