The Springboks are taking a massive gamble with their seven-one bench split in a World Cup final that could come back to haunt outgoing coach Jacques Nienaber and several players who will play in their last match.
The Springboks are taking a massive gamble with their seven-one bench split in a World Cup final that could come back to haunt outgoing coach Jacques Nienaber and several players who will play in their last match.
What makes this selection even riskier is that the Boks are facing a team that has already played against such a split, and has surely, since losing that day at Twickenham two months ago, made plans to never be on the receiving end again.
Even more worrisome is that this forwards-overloaded bench for the Stade de France final tomorrow (9pm kickoff) did not work out against Ireland during the pool stage.
That match will provide the All Blacks with a better blueprint on how to stop the Boks and their “Bomb Squad”.
Look, it’s a bold and inspiring selection, and if it pays off, the genius of coach Nienaber and SA director of rugby Rassie Erasmus will be etched in the history of international rugby forever.
It is the most experienced Bok team that will run out in a Test, and that experience is needed for a final.
But the biggest question is, what happens when a backline player goes down early, and that back is scrumhalf Faf de Klerk?
And it is not out of the question, especially in a predicted wet game, that flyhalf Handre Pollard will survive the full 80 minutes against one of the most physical and direct teams in world rugby.
So, what if he goes down alongside De Klerk? Will there be sufficient cover, with Willie le Roux the only back on the bench? No, there won’t.
As much as the South Africans can say Kwagga Smith will be able to cover wing if it’s needed, he is the one loose forward you want working to stop the All Blacks in their tracks.
The one forward who needs to keep Ardie Savea, Shannon Frizell and others in check when he takes to the field in the second half.
The one who has to make the route-one runs up the park when he has tired forwards in front of him.
The game-breaker who has been so good coming on in the quarter and semi-final.
He won’t be able to do it if he is out on the wing, covering a position that should have had an extra back on the bench for any eventuality.
And that’s where the Boks should probably have gone for the famous six-two split, and at least have a recognised scrumhalf with a utility back waiting to take the field.
You can almost guarantee De Klerk will be the main target of New Zealand because there is no scrumhalf on the bench.
Remember Conor Murray being targeted by, among others, Jerome Kaino at ruck-time during the 2017 British & Irish Lions tour in New Zealand?
It’s not far-fetched to say something like that could happen again tomorrow.
How Pollard goes (and is targeted or protected) will also be watched closely.
Should he leave the field for some reason, the Boks will be there for the taking.
There is no Manie Libbok to fall back on. De Klerk or Le Roux will most likely step into that role, with wing Cheslin Kolbe shuffling to scrumhalf and taking over the kicking duties with De Klerk.
It would mean a change in the game plan for the defending champions, and things could spiral into a blow-out.
The Boks are gambling with their world title. That is a fact, but more often than not, luck has been kind to them.
Nienaber has shown his hand, and now it’s up to Siya Kolisi and his team to prove it’s a royal flush, and that the seven-one split is not a one-hit wonder.
If they fail to do that, they will definitely fold in front of the All Blacks and surrender their title.
Springbok Team
15 Damian Willemse 14 Kurt-Lee Arendse 13 Jesse Kriel 12 Damian de Allende 11 Cheslin Kolbe 10 Handré Pollard 9 Faf de Klerk 8 Duane Vermeulen 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit 6 Siya Kolisi (captain) 5 Franco Mostert 4 Eben Etzebeth 3 Frans Malherbe 2 Bongi Mbonambi 1 Steven Kitshoff
Bench: 16 Deon Fourie 17 Ox Nche 18 Trevor Nyakane 19 Jean Kleyn 20 RG Snyman 21 Kwagga Smith 22 Jasper Wiese 23 Willie le Roux
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