Dr Nik Eberl is the Founder & Executive Chair: The Future of Jobs Summit™ (Official T20 Side Event).
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When Tongaat Hulett announced restructuring that could cost as many as 40,000 jobs, it was not merely a corporate failure. It was a structural alarm. In a country where official unemployment exceeds 30% — and youth unemployment remains persistently above 50% — the loss of tens of thousands of jobs is more than an economic shock. It exposes a deeper question:
At the same time, artificial intelligence is accelerating labour market disruption faster than policymakers anticipated. The convergence of industrial decline and technological automation is reshaping employment at unprecedented speed.
AI Is Compressing White-Collar Employment
Across boardrooms and professional services firms, artificial intelligence is already performing tasks once reserved for highly trained white-collar workers.
AI systems are:
Global research shows that automation disproportionately affects routine cognitive roles — administrative tasks, entry-level analysis, and repeatable knowledge functions. The productivity gains are real.
But productivity gains often reduce workforce requirements. Fewer people are needed to produce the same output. This is the structural shift South Africa must confront. If job creation depends primarily on expanding office-based employment — while AI increases efficiency — unemployment will remain entrenched.
The future of mass employment is no longer concentrated in white-collar expansion. It is shifting toward technical infrastructure, advanced manufacturing, energy systems, and skilled trades — sectors that remain resistant to automation.
The Global Demand Signal: Skilled Labour Is Scarce
Look at Germany. Germany’s industrial competitiveness relies on its dual vocational training system, which produces highly skilled artisans — electricians, welders, machinists, robotics technicians, and industrial maintenance professionals.
Yet Germany currently faces severe labour shortages in these trades, with estimates suggesting shortages running into hundreds of thousands of skilled workers. Its factories cannot expand without technical labour. Its infrastructure cannot scale without hands-on expertise.
This shortage is not unique to Germany. Across Europe and parts of Asia, ageing populations are shrinking domestic workforces while infrastructure renewal and technological upgrades accelerate demand.
These economies need skilled labour. That global demand represents opportunity for South Africa. South Africa has youth. What it lacks is alignment between training systems and global industrial demand. The opportunity is to convert technical training into an exportable national capability.
The Hard Reality: AI Will Not Absorb Millions of Unemployed Youth
South Africa cannot compete with global AI leaders in automation innovation. It cannot rely on government expansion to absorb labour indefinitely. It cannot assume that expanding university enrolment will automatically create jobs.
Even if digital sectors grow, AI will increase productivity — meaning fewer workers may be required to achieve higher output. The structural gap remains: employment growth must outpace automation-driven efficiency. If policy continues prioritising traditional academic pathways while neglecting technical capability, unemployment will deepen. This is not ideological — it is mathematical.
Where the Next Jobs Will Actually Be Created
1 Renewable Energy & Infrastructure Expansion
The global energy transition is accelerating. Solar installations, wind farms, battery storage systems, grid upgrades, and transmission expansion require massive labour deployment. These projects require:
These roles cannot be replaced by AI. They require physical execution and sustained infrastructure management. South Africa has natural advantages — abundant solar resources and industrial capacity — to position itself as a renewable manufacturing and service hub for Africa. The job creation potential is immediate and scalable.
2 Advanced Manufacturing & Artisan Export
Instead of relying solely on domestic job absorption, South Africa can build internationally certified artisan academies aligned with global standards. Imagine exporting certified teams of:
These professionals could support infrastructure projects across Africa, the Middle East, and Europe. This model mirrors how India scaled software exports — but applied to technical trades. It converts skills training into foreign currency inflows and employment expansion.
3 AI-Augmented Digital Services
Digital employment will not disappear — but it will evolve. The highest growth opportunities will lie in roles that manage, integrate, and supervise AI systems rather than compete against them. These include:
Workers who combine technical knowledge with industry understanding will command premium value. Education reform must prioritise hybrid skills development.
4 Agro-Industrial Value Chain Expansion
The decline of commodity-heavy firms such as Tongaat Hulett highlights vulnerability to raw-production dependence. The solution is value addition. Higher employment multipliers exist in:
Moving agriculture up the value chain creates far more jobs than exporting raw commodities. Industrial policy must incentivise processing capacity — not just production volume.
Policy Imperatives
If South Africa wants to convert disruption into opportunity, urgent reforms are required:
Most importantly — shift cultural perception. Technical careers must be framed as strategic national assets. Prestige must attach to productivity.
Conclusion: A Defining Moment
The collapse of legacy industries signals transition — not terminal decline. Artificial intelligence is compressing white-collar employment. Global markets are demanding skilled technical labour. South Africa stands at the intersection of labour surplus and global shortage.
The next jobs will not come from defending outdated structures. They will come from building capabilities the world urgently needs. If policymakers, business leaders, and educational institutions align now — South Africa can transform workforce disruption into competitive advantage. If we delay — automation will outpace adaptation.
Dr Nik Eberl is the founder and executive chair: The Future of Jobs Summit™ (Official T20 Side Event). He is also the author of Nation of Champions: How South Africa won the World Cup of Destination Branding.
*** The views expressed here do not necessarily represent those of Independent Media or IOL.
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