South Africa, the ICJ ruling and the climate verdict that must inspire a continent

The International Court of Justice’s (ICJ) advisory opinion of July 23, 2025 marks a defining moment in international climate law. For South Africa, it is not a verdict of limitation; it is a verdict of leadership. The ruling invites developing nations to act decisively while balancing growth, justice and innovation. As the only African country to preside over the G20 and a principal voice within BRICS, South Africa’s role is pivotal. It must now demonstrate how technological solutions, fiscal diplomacy and climate justice can co-exist without sacrificing energy security or economic dignity.

The ICJ has clarified that climate harm constitutes a breach of international obligations. States must prevent foreseeable damage, protect vulnerable populations and pursue mitigation aligned with the 1.5°C global target. This reinforces the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities; industrialised nations must bear the brunt of climate finance and emissions reductions, while developing nations like South Africa are entitled to a just and sovereign transition.

It is not the use of coal itself that the court condemns, but the failure to pursue cleaner, fairer ways of sustaining life and livelihoods. South Africa emits approximately 482 MtCO₂e per year, just over 1% of global emissions, but carries a disproportionate burden in adapting to climate shocks. Droughts now affect 13 million citizens. Youth unemployment remains above 45%. The economy, projected to grow by only 2.5% in 2025, must expand without deepening inequality. In this context, coal is not just an energy source; it underpins close to 200 000 jobs and powers over 80% of the national grid. The ICJ ruling should not trigger panic or abandonment. Instead, it creates legal space for countries to adopt context-specific mitigation pathways.

For South Africa, this includes accelerating investment in carbon capture, utilisation, and storage (CCUS), ammonia co-firing, and hydrogen development technologies capable of reducing emissions from coal by up to 90% while preserving employment. These are not merely stopgap measures but strategic tools for a responsible transition. The ruling aligns with a broader history of environmental jurisprudence. From the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change to the 2015 Paris Agreement and now this historic opinion, the world has moved steadily toward formalising climate justice as a legal norm.

Africa, despite contributing just 3% of historical emissions since 1850, faces the sharp edge of the crisis. Crop failures, water stress and rising energy costs continue to constrain development. It is, therefore, fitting that Africa leads the ethical framing of what climate action should entail. Yet the Global South’s voice has often been marginalised.

In 2022, during the European energy crisis, nations like Germany increased their coal consumption, even as they pressured African countries to abandon fossil fuels. The 8.5 billion dollar Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) offered to South Africa has been criticised for advancing donor country interests and failing to reflect domestic priorities. It also remains unclear how local communities, particularly in Mpumalanga - the heart of coal employment - benefit from transition plans negotiated at the diplomatic level. This contradiction is deepened by recent events.

In July 2025, HSBC exited the Net-Zero Banking Alliance (NZBA), joining JPMorgan and Citi in withdrawing from key climate commitments. These exits threaten the continuity of green finance and cast doubt on the private sector's resolve. Simultaneously, the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), set to come into effect in 2026, may reduce South African export revenue by up to 10% and create new barriers to trade, particularly for energy-intensive products like steel and aluminium, where tariffs could cost R7.5 to R10 billion annually.

Instead of succumbing to these pressures, South Africa can turn to emerging alternatives. BRICS-led finance, now more aligned with multipolar global governance, offers opportunities to fund transition technologies without surrendering sovereignty. African carbon markets, projected to reach $6 billion by 2030, can become a domestic tool for sustainable growth, provided pricing, ownership and verification systems are developed locally.

South Africa's Coaltech 2025 framework offers a credible model for integrating coal into a decarbonised future. The country’s role in the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) further enhances its strategic position. By linking platinum exports to green hydrogen markets and expanding trade in low-carbon products, South Africa can anchor itself as a regional supplier of transition minerals and technologies. Platinum, manganese and rare earths, abundant across southern Africa, are indispensable to solar panels, batteries and AI infrastructure.

The ICJ opinion offers the jurisprudential basis for demanding both climate justice and reparations from nations whose emissions have caused disproportionate harm in the Global South. South Africa must seize this legal clarity not as a constraint but as leverage. The ICJ has not prohibited coal; it has outlawed negligence. Technologies like CCUS and ammonia co-firing are now essential, not optional. These can preserve existing employment, reduce methane leakage and enhance air quality, even as green hydrogen and solar capacity expand. By retraining youth, investing in green infrastructure and protecting water catchments, the country can reconcile development with decarbonisation.

South Africa finds itself in a unique geopolitical moment, serving as a BRICS member in an expanded bloc and assuming the G20 presidency from December 2024 to November 2025. This dual stewardship reflects a paradox: at once navigating the emerging multipolar dynamics of BRICS and the entrenched global governance frameworks of the G20. It presents both a rare opportunity and a test of agency, requiring South Africa to calibrate its influence across divergent global platforms while ensuring its national and regional imperatives are not diluted. The climate transition cannot be a zero-sum game. A truly just transition must protect those employed today while preparing for the technologies of tomorrow. The ICJ has provided the moral and legal scaffolding for such a transition.

It is now the responsibility of policymakers, industries, youth movements and regional partners to build on that framework. The Verdict The ICJ’s opinion should not be seen as a constraint but as an invitation. South Africa can retain its coal base, modernise it through CCUS and co-firing and simultaneously pioneer green hydrogen and carbon markets. With BRICS financing, AfCFTA trade leverage and AI innovation, it can create 100 000 new green jobs by 2030 while safeguarding the 200,000 coal jobs that already exist. Climate action does not mean economic retreat; it means reimagining the economy around fairness, technology and environmental duty. Neither utopia nor automatic salvation lies ahead. But with deliberate investment, coordinated governance and regional solidarity, South Africa can lead Africa in navigating a transition that is not only just, but sovereign.

Nomvula Zeldah Mabuza is a Risk Governance and Compliance Specialist with extensive experience in strategic risk and industrial operations. She holds a Diploma in Business Management (Accounting) from Brunel University, UK, and is an MBA candidate at Henley Business School, South Africa.

*** The views expressed here do not necessarily represent those of Independent Media or IOL.

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