As a nation we have descended into a vulture nation scenario amid a lack of planning

Why is the 15th of August - a chaotic and shambolic moment in South Africa - so impactful? It ran for two days, two days ago – the National Convention that launched the National Dialogue.

To sketch the background that led to this very moment it was during the last Cabinet Lekgotla that President Thabo Mbeki presided over in July 2008. On the agenda was the discussion of South Africa’s scenarios, the second in the series from the first launched as Memories of the Future: South African Scenarios to 2014: Welcome to Foresight For Development.

The first scenarios had four possible outcomes: Dudisanang, Sgud S’ Nais, Skedonk and Shosholoza. By all counts by 2007, South Africa was on a Shosholoza Scenario of high hope, high economic growth, declining unemployment with annual number of the employed growing by an additional 500 000 entrants. The then President of the Republic, Thabo Mbeki, at his 2007 Sona would say. “I feel emboldened to appropriate for our people the promise contained in the Book of the Prophet Isaiah, when God said: For you shall go out with joy. And be led out in peace. The mountains and the hills Shall break forth into singing before you. And all the trees of the field shall clap their hands. Instead of the thorn shall come up the cypress tree. And instead of the brier shall come up the myrtle tree.”

Five years from the first scenarios and six months post-Polokwane Conference, the July Cabinet Lekgotla of the Third Administration under President Mbeki, three months from resigning as the President of the country, considered the next set of scenarios contained in a document titled, South Africa Scenarios 2025: The future we chose. The scenarios had three sub-optimal outcome scenarios titled Not Yet Uhuru, Nkalakatha and Muvhango.

The Muvhango scenario was the ugliest outcome in this competition of the ugly. And 17 years from that fateful 2008 Cabinet Lekgotla the ugliest scenario contestant won the competition. But not only that, but in the language of Indlulamithi Scenarios the Vulture Nation Scenario a worst case outcome from the Gwara-Gwara Plus nation is the backdrop from the national dialogue.

The Muvhango outcome had an instructive omen, “Despite an initial resurgence of the economy, and positive world conditions, the Government battles to govern well.” This was an understatement given what led to a National Convention launch that was plagued by serious challenges which first saw the Legacy Foundations pull out of it, the shambolic start and the frank disappointment expressed by society on the record of government performance.

What were the specific characteristics of Muvhango. Four outcomes define the Muvhango scenario. The first is Bang Goes the Boom: In this scenario outcome, the slipstream of the 2009 elections and a successful 2010 World Cup, the economy boomed, and the growth rate breached 5.5%. But the euphoria was short-lived, as poor planning and coordination, exacerbated by political in-fighting, started taking their toll on the economy. The second is Politician vs Politician: In this scenario outcome service delivery suffered, and corruption increased, as animosity among politicians reached startling new levels. Efficiency levels declined, as measured by unqualified audits, proportion of budgets spent and citizen satisfaction surveys. The third is The Champ Slips Up: This scenario outcome is marked by the economy, after a few good years, was on the skids. Foreign multinationals and private equity funds began cherry-picking key South African assets. South Africa’s proportion of continental GDP declined to such an extent, that by 2025, the country lost its unrivalled pre-eminence on the continent. The last scenario outcome is The Brink of a New Era characterised by Standing at the edge of a cliff, a new ANC went back to the nation, humbly, and demonstrated signs of a revival of idealism.

President Mbeki was the architect of Scenario Planning in government. Sadly, what followed his departure from office never became part of instruments of reflection. Little wonder why we are where we are today. For if these became the guardrail of subsequent administration, perhaps the country would not have walked into the Muvhango Scenario with its blind eyes and deaf ears wide open. Perhaps the ruling party would have recognized and advised itself of the Brink of a New Era, and confronted the arrogance of incumbency, which hitherto has caused the so called legacy foundations to leave the stage on the eve of the convening of the national dialogue. There is every reason to realize that the convening of the Legacy Foundations was primarily informed by the 2025 The Future we Chose Scenarios and in that respect the foundations had a deeper understanding on why a national dialogue was necessary based on the inbuilt capability of using scenarios as a guide to leading and managing public affairs.

For, the architect of the two only scenarios government ever produced as guard rails of governance were under Mbeki’s craftmanship. Subsequent presidents either did not know or ignored scenarios as a crucial sensory arsenal in the management of public affairs.

Scenarios are not just instruments but define responsible leadership as defined by Morena Mohlomi (1723-1813) who said, “a responsible leader pursues peaceful and productive alliances, accommodates stakeholders, and uses new instruments of power to create intergenerational value”.

Perhaps the National Dialogue should visit Ngoliloe in what was Lesotho before the present day Free State was created by the British cum Afrikaner colonisers and seek wisdom from the departed spirit of Morena Mohlomi on the subject of responsible leadership which the Future we Chose Scenarios suggest under the outcome of the Brink of a New Dawn.

As Albie Sachs said we have succeeded in winning over the sovereign land mass called South Africa, but asks the question, have we the society we wished for. The answer is no we don't.

The United Nations Committee of Experts on Public Administration place scenario building competence and modelling capability as a core attribute for managing public affairs. The evidence is that South Africa is not only malnourished of these critical vitamins, but it has also instead chosen to reject them as fundamental pillars for responsible leadership. The consequences are bitter according to the recently released scenarios of Indlulamithi. Not only we have been a Gwara-Gwara Plus nation, but we are successfully accelerating into a vulture nation.

Dr Pali Lehohla is a Professor of Practice at the University of Johannesburg, a Research Associate at Oxford University, a board member of Institute for Economic Justice at Wits and a distinguished Alumni of the University of Ghana. He is the former Statistician-General of South Africa.

*** The views expressed here do not necessarily represent those of Independent Media or IOL.

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