Global Oil Demand Rises as Brazil Sets Record Production

Global oil demand has continued its steady rise in 2025, averaging 104.4 million barrels per day through 17 September, up 520,000 barrels year on year, driven by strong industrial activity and robust transport demand outside the US. In contrast, US container arrivals and cargo flights are slowing, slightly limiting domestic jet fuel consumption, though seasonal air travel remains strong. Amid this global trend, Brazil reached a record 4.9 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in June 2025, with crude oil at 3.7 million barrels per day and natural gas at 181 million cubic meters per day, largely led by pre-salt offshore fields such as the Tupi field.

Global oil consumption has continued its steady growth in 2025, averaging 104.4 million barrels per day through 17 September, a year-on-year increase of 520,000 barrels per day. Year-to-date growth is tracking roughly 0.8 million barrels per day, slightly below earlier projections of 0.83 million barrels. September demand has averaged 104.4 million barrels per day, marginally under forecasted levels of 104.5 million barrels. This steady expansion highlights the resilience of oil consumption amid evolving market conditions.

Regional and Industrial Drivers

Outside the United States, demand indicators remain robust. Chinese port activity grew 7% year on year in early September, reflecting healthy export levels. Globally, daily flights increased by 2.6% compared to last year, although growth has moderated from previous months. While flight volumes in the U.S. and China have eased as the summer travel season concluded, air traffic continues to expand in Europe, the Middle East, and Latin America. On the industrial side, East Asia’s imports of petrochemical feedstocks have stabilised following a recovery in July and August from a June slump.

In the US, container arrivals are slowing, with September volumes expected to be around 10% lower than the previous year, and early trends suggest this decline could continue into October. Global cargo flight activity has also fallen to a 20-month low, reducing overall transport demand and pressuring US jet fuel consumption. Despite this, seasonal air travel globally has exceeded expectations, with daily flights up 3.8% year on year. US air passenger throughput in August rose by 1% compared with the same period last year.

Brazil Sets Record Oil and Gas Output

Amid the global trends, Brazil has achieved a historic milestone in oil and natural gas production. In June 2025, the country produced 4.9 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, marking a rise of more than 10% compared to June 2024. Crude oil output reached 3.7 million barrels per day, a 10.1% increase, while natural gas production surged 20.9% year on year to 181 million cubic meters per day.

The pre-salt layer has been the driving force behind Brazil’s growth, accounting for 78.8% of total output and reaching 3.8 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, up 12.7% from the previous year. Offshore fields dominate production, contributing 97.6% of crude oil and 85.3% of natural gas, with the Tupi field in the Santos Basin leading the way at 794,000 barrels of oil and 40 million cubic meters of gas per day.

Global oil markets in 2025 are characterised by steady demand growth, resilient industrial and transport activity, and regional disparities, while Brazil’s record production underscores its growing importance as a major energy supplier. These trends highlight the interplay between consumption patterns, seasonal factors, and strategic production developments in shaping global oil markets.

Written By: 

*Cole Jackson

Lead Associate at BRICS+ Consulting Group 

Chinese & South American Specialist

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