Fuel price forecast: October could bring more good news for diesel prices

South Africans have enjoyed relatively stable fuel prices for most of 2025, and that is set to continue in October, with only minor price adjustments expected.

Mid-month data from the Central Energy Fund is showing a slight under-recovery on petrol prices, which could lead to price increases of around 15 cents for 95 Unleaded and 7 cents for 93 Unleaded, if current trends continue. 

Diesel, on the other hand, is looking poised for a price decrease in the region of eight cents for both grades, keeping in mind that the outlook could still change between now and the end of this month.

The price of diesel decreased by between 56 cents (500ppm) and 57 cents (50ppm) at the beginning of September, while petrol went down by four cents.

95 Unleaded petrol currently costs R20.76 at the coast and R21.55 in Gauteng, where 93 Unleaded retails at R21.47. The wholesale price of 50ppm diesel is currently listed at R18.71 at the coast and R19.47 in Gauteng.

Lower diesel prices are particularly good news for the economy, says Lebo Ramolahloane, National Vice Chairperson of the South African Petroleum Retailers Association (SAPRA).

“Households and businesses have been under immense strain from months of volatility. This decrease brings real relief. Diesel’s sharp drop is especially positive for transport, agriculture, and logistics -  sectors that carry the economy and directly impact consumer costs,” Ramolahloane said.

September’s fuel price adjustments have effectively brought petrol and diesel prices down to the same level as they were in January 2025.

October’s expected fuel price reductions come mostly as a result of a stronger rand, which is contributing to an over-recovery of around nine cents. The local currency has staged a strong recovery this year, hitting R17.39 to the US dollar on Wednesday, after nearly breaching R20 in April.

IOL Motoring