Diesel price hiking cycle appears to be over, with relief expected in September

The diesel price hiking cycle appears to be a thing of the past, with a price decrease looking likely for September, following two consecutive increases.

Although data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) is pointing to a modest decrease of 11 cents for 50ppm diesel, based on the month average, the latest daily data shows a much larger over-recovery in the region of 70 cents. Should this trend continue, a more substantial diesel decrease could materialise.

Those with petrol-powered vehicles are in line for a modest price adjustment, with the CEF data pointing to decreases of around six cents for 95 Unleaded and 11 cents for 93 Unleaded.

Diesel has gone up by R1.47 in the past two months, although thanks to decreases earlier in the year, it is just 60 cents more expensive than it was in January.

The wholesale price of 50ppm diesel is currently listed at R19.28 at the coast.

Lebo Ramolahloane, Vice Chairperson of the SA Petroleum Retailers Association (SAPRA) said the recent diesel price hikes were posing serious challenges for transport operators and other diesel-reliant sectors.

“Diesel’s steep increase is concerning, especially for the freight and agricultural sectors which are already under pressure. For petroleum retailers, these pricing dynamics continue to erode already thin margins and place pressure on operational sustainability,” he said.

Petrol price inflation has been more contained in 2025, with costs currently at the same level as January, with 95 Unleaded retailing at R20.80 at the coast and R21.59 in Gauteng, where 93 ULP costs R21.51.

However, on average, fuel is 11.2% less expensive than it was a year ago, according to data released by Stats SA.

The price adjustments predicted for September are primarily driven by lower international oil prices, counteracted by a slightly weaker rand which is currently resulting in a deficit of 10 cents.

ALSO READ: The poor will be hit hardest: Treasury slammed for increasing fuel levy in 2025 Budget 3.0

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