Brazilian referee Wilton Sampaio shows a red card to South Africa's midfielder Themba Zwane during the 2026 World Cup Group A football match between Mexico and South Africa at the Mexico City Stadium in Mexico City on June 11, 2026. Picture: CARL DE SOUZA / AFP
Image: CARL DE SOUZA / AFP
After months of preparation — and years if you include their qualifying campaign — the 2-0 loss to co-hosts Mexico in their opening Fifa World Cup match would have come as a hammer blow to Bafana Bafana’s ambitions of reaching the next round. But all is not lost. Not yet.
Of course, losing by two goals was not ideal, but avoiding a third against Mexico may yet prove to be Bafana’s saving grace. More on that later.
That Bafana were utterly toothless in attack is a topic for another day.
Bafana qualified for the tournament on merit; they deserve to be there. Even after being docked three points during qualifying due to an administrative error, South Africa still finished top of their group and booked their World Cup ticket. That alone was a monumental feat.
While Bafana have failed to advance to the knockout stages in each of their three previous World Cup appearances, the expanded 48-team format has significantly improved their prospects. The top two teams from each of the 12 groups will progress, along with the eight best third-placed teams.
That means that before a ball was even kicked, this represented South Africa’s best opportunity yet to make history at football’s biggest tournament.
However, that equation changed after Bafana’s defeat. Add in South Korea’s 2-1 victory over Czechia later on Thursday, and South Africa now find themselves rooted to the bottom of Group A.
This is where goal difference becomes increasingly important.
Bafana are on zero points with a goal difference of minus two, while Czechia are also pointless but with a goal difference of minus one.
South Korea sit second with three points and a goal difference of plus one, while Mexico top the group with three points and a goal difference of plus two.
Bafana now have two games remaining. The first is against Czechia on June 18 in Atlanta before their final group match against South Korea on June 25 back in Mexico, in Guadalupe.
Mexico are ranked 15th in the FIFA world rankings, South Korea 22nd and Czechia 43rd. Bafana, by comparison, are ranked 61st.
If Bafana win their final two matches, they will finish on six points and almost certainly qualify for the next round. However, given the manner of the defeat to Mexico, that now appears an unlikely outcome.
A more realistic target would be four points from their remaining two matches — a win and a draw.
A draw against Czechia would still be a valuable result, although collecting all three points will likely require a significant tactical shift from coach Hugo Broos.
Bafana’s final game against South Korea is arguably where an upset is most achievable.
By then, they will have their suspended players back and will have little to lose. If Bafana can rediscover the defensive structure that made them such a force during qualifying and be more effective on the counter-attack, this is a match where they could realistically claim all three points.
Should Bafana somehow finish on four points, they would give themselves an excellent chance of sneaking into the knockout rounds as one of the tournament’s best third-placed teams.
And that’s where conceding only two goals against Mexico could prove crucial.
In a World Cup where goal difference may ultimately separate the best third-placed sides, every goal matters. Bafana’s hopes may have taken a significant knock on Thursday night, but their dream of reaching the Round of 32 remains very much alive.