Eskom's Winter Outlook released in a media briefing in Johannesburg on Wednesday indicated that no loadshedding was expected with a positive outlook for Winter.
Image: File
Eskom has indicated that it does not expect loadshedding through Winter and it has a positive outlook of energy stability through the period.
Eskom said that it enters the 2026 winter season with a resilient power system, projecting a winter period of continued energy stability from April 1 to August 31, 2026.
“This positive outlook follows the successful conclusion of the summer period, during which the national grid operated with ongoing sustained reliability. With the Generation Recovery Plan firmly embedded in day‑to‑day operations, Eskom has moved beyond short‑term recovery into a phase of stability and sustained energy security, ensuring that homes, businesses and industries remain powered through the peak winter months.”
Eskom added that this stability is underscored by it maintaining a consistent energy supply of 98.9% in the last financial year to 31 March 2026, a marked improvement from 9% two years ago, reflecting a strengthening of generation performance, operational discipline and system resilience. “The winter outlook reflects improved reliability and availability across the generation fleet.”
Eskom said that additional capacity has been secured primarily through a 5,2GW reduction in unplanned losses, supplemented by 1,1GW from demand‑side management programs, enabling Eskom to meet national demand this winter.
“On this basis, Eskom has a surplus peak capacity of about 6GW over the period. These improvements have enabled Eskom to lower its base‑case assumption for unplanned outages to approximately 12GW, compared to 13GW in the previous winter outlook.”
Eskom said even under higher‑stress conditions, where unplanned losses approach 14GW, the system is expected to remain resilient, with no loadshedding anticipated.
Eskom said that this also took into account Eskom’s expanded customer base. “During FY2026, Eskom completed 67 578 new household connections, with a further 2 119 households supplied through distributed energy resources (DERs).”
Eskom’s Group Chief Executive, Dan Marokane, said: “This enables us to integrate renewable energy sources as per the 2025 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) for the maintenance of energy security in the future. Eskom is consciously assessing the new capacity build rate across all required technologies as this, along with other socio-economic conditions, will be vital in determining the transition of the coal-fired power stations.”
Eskom’s Group Executive for Generation, Bheki Nxumalo, said that it was very difficult to embed cost savings when their generation fleet was unstable. “Today, we have dramatically reduced diesel dependency and saved R26,9bn compared to FY2023. These savings are a result of strengthened maintenance discipline and project delivery. Every megawatt we return contributes toward economic growth.”
Nxumalo said the restoration of a consistent baseload electricity supply has enabled Eskom to be in a position to support industries in distress, particularly the ferrochrome industry, and play a meaningful role in preventing job losses.
“The country has invested in Eskom, and we are continuously working to restore this national asset to full health; it is a resource that all citizens have supported.”
Ruse Moleshe, MD of RUBK, an energy and infrastructure consulting and advisory company, said that from a load shedding perspective, Eskom’s performance over the past year is clearly positive. “The system has stabilised, with approximately 341 days without load shedding, supported by a meaningful improvement in plant performance — the Energy Availability Factor has increased from around 55% in 2023 to about 65% in the 2026 financial year.”
Moleshe added that this has translated into a healthier reserve margin. “At the same time, there has been a significant reduction in reliance on open-cycle gas turbines, with usage and associated costs down by roughly 62% year-on-year, and no diesel-fired generation required since January.”
Moleshe said municipal debt keeps rising, and was reported to be R111.6bn. “This poses a material risk to cash flow and overall sustainability and the reason Eskom is pursuing measures under Promotion of Administrative Justice Act, 2000, (PAJA), effectively seeking to use credit control and potentially switching off municipalities that do not adhere to these controls.”
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