According to StatsSA, the surge in output was underpinned by strong gains in several key commodities. Platinum group metals (PGMs) led the expansion, recording an exceptional 52.3% increase and contributing the bulk of overall growth.
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South Africa’s mining industry delivered its strongest performance in two years in February, with production rising by 9.7% year-on-year, rebounding from a revised 5% increase in January.
The latest figures released by Statistics South Africa (StatsSA) on Tuesday signal a sharp recovery in activity, marking the fastest pace of growth since February 2024, although analysts caution that the improvement remains uneven and largely driven by base effects.
According to StatsSA, the surge in output was underpinned by strong gains in several key commodities. Platinum group metals (PGMs) led the expansion, recording an exceptional 52.3% increase and contributing the bulk of overall growth.
Other notable contributors included chromium ore, which rose by 26.9%, manganese ore at 17.8%, and gold at 12.8%, which contributed an additional 1.3% to the top-line reading. Nickel and diamond production also posted year-on-year gains, further supporting the positive headline figure.
However, the recovery was not broad-based. StatsSA said iron ore and coal output declined significantly, falling by 12.4% and 6.7% respectively, while copper production also weakened. These declines highlight persistent challenges within parts of the sector.
“South African mining activity expanded by 9.7% year on year in February 2026. Platinum group metals led the increase, growing by 52.3% and contributing 9.4 percentage points to overall growth,” said Jean-Pierre Terblanche, principal survey statistician at StatsSA.
“Nickel, chromium ore, manganese ore, diamonds and gold were also positive year-on-year. However, there was a decline in the production of coal, iron ore and copper.”
On a month-on-month basis, seasonally adjusted mining production increased by 2.3% in February, following a revised 3.7% rise in January and a 2.1% decline in December.
Despite this short-term momentum, the broader trend remains less encouraging. Mining production contracted by 1.7% in the three months ended February compared with the previous three-month period, indicating ongoing volatility.
The Don Consultancy Group (DCG) noted that the sector experienced a notable rebound in both production and sales during February. However, it warned that underlying structural inefficiencies continue to constrain sustainable growth.
Chifi Mhango, chief economist at DCG, said the divergence between short-term gains and medium-term contraction highlights the extent to which operational disruptions and structural inefficiencies continue to weigh on mining output.
“The current trends reinforce the urgency for targeted policy action, in which key priorities include accelerating energy sector reforms, strengthening public-private partnerships in logistics infrastructure, enhancing regulatory certainty to attract investment, and promoting downstream beneficiation to support industrialisation,” he said.
Year-to-date, mining output has risen by 7.3% compared to the same period in 2025, offering a more encouraging picture after last year’s near-stagnant growth of just 0.1%.
Still, economists remain cautious about the outlook, particularly in light of evolving global risks.
Thanda Sithole, FNB senior economist, said while it is still too early to draw firm conclusions, particularly as the data pre-dates the escalation of Middle East tensions in late February, this improvement is encouraging, given that output growth was effectively flat in 2025.
Sithole said prior to the escalation in Middle East tensions, they expected mining activity to accelerate modestly this year, supported by prevailing commodity prices at the time.
“However, commodity prices have since become more volatile amid heightened global uncertainty, clouding the outlook,” Sithole said.
“A faster easing of tensions would be supportive of production conditions. Importantly, easing domestic energy and logistics constraints should provide support to mining sector activity over the medium term.”
Seven of the 12 mining divisions recorded increased production in February, reflecting some breadth in the recovery. In addition to PGMs, chromium and manganese made meaningful contributions, while gold added further support to overall growth.
Lara Hodes, Investec economist, emphasized that the increase in mining activity was largely driven by base effects and strong PGM performance.
Hodes also noted that mining input cost inflation eased to 1.2% year-on-year in February, down from 1.6% previously, supported by a stronger rand and relatively stable oil prices at the time.
However, she warned that rising oil prices and currency weakness following escalating Middle East tensions are likely to push costs higher in subsequent months.
“Consequently, input costs are likely to have risen notably in March and April, weighing on profitability and operational effectiveness. The trajectory of global growth in the near term remains uncertain and could accordingly weigh heavily on demand for a number of commodities,” she said.
BUSINESS REPORT