Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) first production forecast for summer crops for 2026 indicates a positive outlook for the 2026 summer crop
Image: David Ritchie
Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) first production forecast for summer crops for 2026 indicates a positive outlook for the 2026 summer crop. Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz) has welcomed the forecast.
CEC said that the revised area estimate for maize is 2,716,200 ha, which is 4.60% or 119 500 ha more than the 2 596 700 ha planted for the previous season, and 1.57% or 42,000 ha more than the preliminary area estimate of 2,674,200 ha released in January 2026.
“The expected commercial maize crop is 16,126,350 tons, which is 3.15% or 523,650 tons less than the 16,650,000 tons of the previous season (2025). The yield for maize is 5.94 t/ha,” it said.
CEC added that the area estimate for white maize is 1,644,700 ha, which represents an increase of 2.81% or 45,000 ha compared to the 1,599,700 ha planted last season.
“The production forecast of white maize is 8 509 550 tons, which is 0.70% or 59,550 tons more than the 8 450 000 tons of last season. The yield for white maize is 5.17 t/ha,” it said.
CEC said that in the case of yellow maize, the area estimate is 1,071,500 ha, which is 7.47% or 74, 500 ha more than the 997,000 ha planted last season. The yellow maize production forecast is 7,616,800 tons, which is 7.11% or 583,200 tons less than the 8,200,000 tons of last season. The yield for yellow maize is 7.11 t/ha.
CEC added that the revised area estimate for sunflower seed is 569,600 ha, which is 2.50% or 13,900 ha more than the 555,700 ha planted the previous season. The production forecast for sunflower seed is 754,475 tons, which is 7.78% or 54,475 tons more than the 700,000 tons of the previous season. The expected yield is 1.32 t/ha.
CEC said that it is estimated that 1,212,500 ha have been planted to soybeans, which represents an increase of 5.34% or 61,500 ha compared to the 1,151,000 ha planted last season. The production forecast is 2,661,425 tons, which is 4.95% or 138,575 tons less than the 2,800,000 tons of the previous season. The expected yield is 2.19 t/ha.
Wandile Sihlobo, the chief economist at Agbiz, said that these are still early days for South Africa’s 2025-26 summer grains and oilseeds production season, but from its very start, it appears that we are in yet another better production year ahead.
“These are still early days for South Africa’s 2025-26 summer grains and oilseeds production season, but from its very start, it appears that we are in yet another better production year ahead,” he said.
Sihlobo added that Agbiz now had the first production estimate for the 2025-26 season, at 19.82 million tonnes while this is 3% less than the 2024-25 season, it remains an encouraging estimate.
Sihlobo said that we must not forget that the 2024-25 summer grains and oilseeds were the second-largest on record; therefore, being marginally lower than they were is not cause for concern.
“This production figure comprises maize, sunflower seed, soybean, groundnuts, sorghum, and dry beans. We see minor annual downward revisions in most crops, except for sunflower seed and groundnuts. If we zoom in on the major grains, the 2025-26 maize production estimate is 16.126 million tonnes, down 3% from the previous season but well above the long-term average production,” he said.
Sihlobo added that this expected harvest is well above South Africa’s annual maize usage of 12.0 million tonnes.
“The 3% expected annual decline in the harvest is due to poor yields in some regions, despite higher plantings than in the previous season. About 8.51 million tonnes of white maize, with 7.62 million tonnes being yellow maize. Such a maize crop, combined with likely large carryover stocks from the current season, signals that South Africa will yet again remain a net exporter of maize in the 2026-27 marketing year that begins in May (this corresponds with the 2025-26 production season),” he said.
Sihlobo concluded that the sorghum harvest will likely fall by 12% to 131,888 tonnes due to a reduction in planted area and expected poor yields in some regions, and the dry beans harvest will be down by 13% to 78,594 tonnes, also because of the reduction in planted area and expected poor yields in some regions.
“From a consumer perspective, these data will likely continue to put downward pressure on grain and oilseed prices, further supporting our long-standing view of a moderating path of food price inflation in 2026,” he said.
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