SACCI Business Confidence Index shows slight decline in January

The South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SACCI) said its Business Confidence Index (BCI) released on Wenesday in January indicated a slight decline from 133.2 in December 2025 to 131.4 in January but still remained in a strong position.

SACCI said that the BCI averaged 121.7 for the year 2025.

“This is the highest annual average recorded since 2013 when the BCI measured 122.2. After dipping to 113.2 in June 2025, the BCI recovered strongly from August 2025 onward to reach 133.2 in December 2025. The BCI declined slightly in January 2026 but still recorded a healthy level of 131.4. The January 2026 BCI was 11.4 index points higher than a year ago but 1.8 index points lower than in December 2025,” it said.

SACCI added that this high level of the business confidence index was not the result of a broad-based improvement in the business climate. “The year-on-year improvement was notably the result of particularly strong increases in overseas tourists, high global precious metal prices, share prices on the JSE, and new vehicle sales. These increases were to a large extent affected by an uncertain global economic situation, positive financial market developments and easier local financial conditions.”

SACCI said that between December 2025 and January 2026 (month-on-month), three of the fourteen BCI sub-indices, namely, manufacturing, merchandise export volumes, and the number of new vehicles sold negatively echoed through the business climate. “Five sub-indices supported a positive business climate, and six sub-indices had a neutral effect. The passivity of notably real economic sub-indices is of concern. In the short term (month-on-month) the broad financial climate was leaning towards a positive business climate.

SACCI added that real economic activity was, however, uneasily balanced and negatively orientated. “Over the medium term (year-on-year) the sub-indices on the financial environment were in support of an improved business climate and augmented by real economic activity with only one sub-index (export volumes) pointing south. The exceptional increase in business confidence towards 2025 year-end and into 2026 provides an important opportunity to convert positive business sentiment into real action. It is however important that all spheres of the public sector deliver on practical service delivery. A further opportunity is forthcoming from Budget 2026 and resultant action. Time is running out for structural economic policy adjustments that could attract local and foreign fixed investment.”

Professor Waldo Krugell, an economist at North-West University, said that it is good news that the SACCI index echoes the optimism about the SA economy that we are seeing in other indicators as well.

“A big part of this is related to positive sentiment in the markets: high global precious metal prices and share prices on the JSE. But there are also some real economic improvements, like strong increases in overseas tourists and new vehicle sales. In a way, I think we have been here before with optimism around the GNU at the end of 2024. The big issue is to not waste the positive sentiment and turn it into real investment,” he said.

North West University's Business School economist, Professor Raymond Parsons, said  the latest SACCI business confidence index confirms that, although business confidence has recovered over the past year, the economic upturn is not yet on autopilot.

“It reinforces the importance of ensuring that the overall growth-oriented message in President Cyril Ramaphosa's State of the Nation Address (SONA) last week is implemented as soon as possible to underpin the present economic recovery. Although major socioeconomic challenges remain, ranging from high unemployment to poor service delivery, South Africa must now capitalise on the better economic and business news emerging,” he said.

Parsons said that the forthcoming budget speech on February 25 must therefore also seize the moment and compellingly 'package' the elements of stability, recovery, and especially the real deep reforms now needed. “The budget next week needs to concretize the SONA's message in tangible and confidence-building ways. Confidence-building on better news is the cheapest form of economic stimulation.”

Unisa economist Dr Eliphas Ndou said that he expected an improvement in the SACCI - BCI, which is broadly supportive of improvements across various sentiment indicators such as the ABSA PMI, the RMB Business Confidence Index, the FNB Building Confidence Index, and the Civil Confidence Index.

“These indices are propelled by sustained economic growth, lower inflation closer to the 3 percent target point, a lower repo rate, and a strong exchange rate. The latter leads to lower fuel prices, reduced transportation costs and production costs. An optimistic tone in the upcoming Budget outlook can add impetus to sustained improvement in the macroeconomic outlook,” Ndou said. 

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