Food basket costs rise month-on-month despite annual decline: PMBEJD

South African households faced renewed pressure in January as the cost of basic food items increased month-on-month, despite a modest year-on-year decline, according to the Pietermaritzburg Economic Justice and Dignity Group’s (PMBEJD) January 2026 Household Affordability Index.

The index, released on Thursday, shows that the average cost of the Household Food Basket rose by R67.99, or 1.3%, from R5 333.45 in December 2025 to R5 401.44 in January 2026.

On an annual basis, however, the basket was R32.26 cheaper than a year earlier, representing a 0.6% decrease from R5 433.70 in January 2025.

PMBEJD director Mervyn Abrahams said price increases were widespread across the basket. Of the 44 food items tracked, 26 increased in price, 17 declined, and one remained unchanged.

Items recording price increases of 5% or more included potatoes and onions both up 15%, spinach, carrots, soup, cremora, cabbage, and frozen chicken portions.

Several other staple foods rose by at least 2%, including rice, salt, maas, eggs, chicken gizzards, beef, beef tripe, apples, margarine, peanut butter, and polony.

Some relief came from declines in a smaller number of items. Foods that fell by 5% or more included chicken feet, which dropped by 6%, and green peppers, down 10%. Other notable decreases were recorded in sugar beans, samp, wors, butternut, canned beans, and bananas.

Regional data showed mixed trends. The Johannesburg basket declined by R22.73, or 0.4%, month-on-month, but increased by R8.31 (0.2%) year-on-year to R5 515.69.

Durban recorded a R11.11 (0.2%) month-on-month decrease and a significant annual drop of R155.71 (2.9%), bringing the basket to R5 295.36.

In contrast, Cape Town experienced a sharp month-on-month increase of R204.09 (3.9%), with the basket rising slightly year-on-year by R20.77 (0.4%) to R5 389.36.

Abrahams noted that Statistics South Africa’s latest Consumer Price Index for December 2025 shows headline inflation at 3.6%, while food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation stood at 4.4%.

Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz), said the average food price inflation for 2025 is 3.8% from 4.1% in 2024.

“For much of 2025, the primary drivers of the deceleration in food price inflation from higher levels at mid-year were mainly fruit and nuts, vegetables, meat, sugar, confectionery and desserts," Sihlobo said.

"The ample supplies, combined with the base effects, are what contribute to the easing of price inflation in these products.”

Sihlobo added that cereal product inflation also remains relatively low on the back of the ample grain harvest in the country.

He noted that South Africa has an abundant harvest, with the 2024-25 summer grains and oilseed harvest estimated at 20.08 million tons, which is a 30% year-on-year increase.

“What has remained on top of mind is meat price inflation, which remains relatively elevated. The FMD remains a major challenge in the cattle industry, even as vaccination is still underway, and will likely gain momentum soon.”

Black Sash's KZN director, Evashnee Naidu, noted that there has been an increase in the household affordability food index.

“While there has been a decrease year on year, this is not adequate enough in terms of the increase of basic food prices. As Black Sash, we are waiting for the State of the Nation address and the Budget speech and hope that issues of poverty and Basic Income Grant will be prioritised,” Naidoo said.

Siyanda Baduza, a researcher with the Basic Income Project at the Institute for Economic Justice (IEJ), said that the R68 increase unfortunately claws back some of the gains from reduced food prices seen in December.

“This is unfortunate for many poor families, as January is a notorious month for unaffordability. The increase is especially concerning for grant-recipient households, as any increases in social grants (if any are included in next month's budget) come later in the year," Baduza said.

"Consequently, they were forced to buy much less food in January, putting them at risk of food insecurity.”

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