Retail sales climb 3.5% in November as Black Friday spurs spending

Shoppers gave the retail sector a welcome boost in November, with new figures showing that sales were stronger than expected and supported by Black Friday-related promotion. Data released by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) reveal that retail trade sales rose by 3.5% compared with the same period last year, a positive sign for both consumers and businesses. Experts have welcomed the increase in retail sales.

Stats SA said that the largest positive contributors to this increase were general dealers (2.2% and contributing 1.0 percentage point); all ‘other’ retailers (8.0% and contributing 0.8 of a percentage point); and retailers in pharmaceuticals and medical goods, cosmetics and toiletries (10.1% and contributing 0.6 of a percentage point).

Stats SA added that seasonally adjusted retail trade sales increased by 0.6% in November 2025 compared with October 2025. This followed month-on-month changes of 1.0% in October 2025 and -0.1% in September 2025.

Retail trade sales increased by 3.2% in the three months ended November 2025 compared with the three months ended November 2024. The largest positive contributors to this increase were retailers in textiles, clothing, footwear and leather goods (3.9% and contributing 0.7 of a percentage point); general dealers (1.6% and contributing 0.7 of a percentage point); and all ‘other’ retailers (6.4% and contributing 0.6 of a percentage point).

The only negative contributor was retailers in food, beverages and tobacco in specialised stores (-0.7% and contributing -0.1 of a percentage point).

Siphamandla Mkhwanazi, FNB senior economist, said that retail sales growth accelerated to 3.5% y/y in November, up from 3.0% in October (revised from 2.9%), surpassing market expectations for a 2.5% increase.

“On a month-on-month basis, sales volumes rose 0.6%, slightly slower than the 1.0% recorded previously. This outcome bodes well for 4Q25 GDP growth. Activity in November was likely supported by Black Friday-related promotions, which most retailers spread across the month,” he said.

Mkhwanazi added that growth in November was broad-based across most segments, with all categories except specialist food and beverage retailers recording expansion. “Retail sales are expected to maintain positive momentum, supported by stronger household balance sheets, improving purchasing power, and a monetary policy stance that is expected to become more neutral. In addition, multi-year wage agreements across key sectors should provide a meaningful lift to disposable income, supporting both discretionary and essential spending. As a result, retail activity is likely to contribute positively to overall economic performance into 2026.”

Lara Hodes, Investec economist, said that according to the results of the BER’s latest retail survey, confidence amongst participants increased in the fourth quarter of 2025, climbing to 43% from 32% recorded in the third quarter. “The BER noted that this can be attributed to more favourable trading conditions, buoyed by improved sales volumes and profitability in the sector.”

Hodes added that all retail categories included in the basket increased when compared to the same period last year, barring the food, beverages and tobacco in specialised stores segment, which contracted by -0.8% y/y, detracting -0.1% from the headline reading. “The largest positive contribution stemmed from the general dealers’ segment, which makes up close to half of the retail basket. This category added 1.0% to the headline number on growth of 2.2% y/y. This aligns with the BER’s retail survey findings which show that sentiment amongst non-durable retailers jumped to “its highest level” of 2025 in the fourth quarter.”

Hodes said that in addition to general dealers, the “catchall” category of all other retailers contributed an additional 0.8% to the topline reading, while the pharmaceuticals and medical goods, cosmetics and toiletries grouping contributed 0.6%, on the back of growth of 10.1% y/y. “Consumers have benefitted from a lower inflationary environment and monetary easing, with a further -25bp likely in March this year. Moreover, the official unemployment rate eased modestly in the third quarter, while consumer confidence is less negative, with all underlying indices improving over the quarter. This bodes well for HCE, which is projected at 3.1% for 2025.”

BUSINESS REPORT