Mining production in South Africa declines by 2.7% in November

Stats SA has raised alarm bells as mining production and sales for November 2025 released on Tuesday indicated that mining production decreased by 2.7% year-on-year.

Stats SA said that the largest negative contributors were:

• coal (-7.9% and contributing -2.1 percentage points);
• iron ore (-7.6% and contributing -1.1 percentage points);
•  Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) (-2.8% and contributing -0.8 of a percentage point); and
• gold (-6.0% and contributing -0.5 of a percentage point).

Stats SA added that Manganese ore (17.0% and contributing 1.1 percentage points) was the largest positive contributor. “Seasonally adjusted mining production decreased by 5.9% in November 2025 compared with October 2025. This followed month-on-month changes of 2.7% in October 2025 and 2.0% in September 2025.”

Stats SA said that seasonally adjusted mining production increased by 1.6% in the three months ended November 2025 compared with the previous three months. “The largest positive contributors were:

• PGMs (3.8% and contributing 1.0 percentage point);
• iron ore (5.7% and contributing 0.9 of a percentage point); and
• manganese ore (6.5% and contributing 0.5 of a percentage point).”

Stats SA added that mineral sales at current prices decreased by 0.3% year-on-year in November 2025. “The largest negative contributors were:

• gold (-27.9% and contributing -6.0 percentage points);
• coal (-15.0% and contributing -3.8 percentage points); and
• iron ore (-16.6% and contributing -1.7 percentage points).

The largest positive contributor was PGMs (42.3% and contributing 9.7 percentage points).

Seasonally adjusted mineral sales at current prices decreased by 2.4% in November 2025 compared with October 2025. “This followed month-on-month changes of -0.9% in October 2025 and 7.9% in September 2025.”

Lara Hodes, an Investec economist, said that mining production contracted in November, falling by -2.7% y/y, following a 6.1% y/y (revised) increase at the beginning of the fourth quarter. “The result was markedly weaker than consensus expectations of a further 5.0% y/y lift.”

Hodes added that six of the twelve categories included in the mining basket declined when compared with the same period last year. “The largest negative contributor was coal, which makes up a notable 26.3% of the mining basket. Specifically, it fell by -7.9% y/y detracting -2.1% from the headline number.”

Hodes said that weather-related factors, aging mines, logistical shortcomings, and elevated operational costs remain key challenges for domestic mining operations. “According to the Minerals Council South Africa, a number of significant cost pressures continued to weigh on the energy-intensive mining sector in November. Electricity costs jumped 15.9% y/y, while water costs increased by 11.6% y/y, both remaining significant contributors to operational inflation.”

Hodes added that iron ore detracted a further -1.1% from November’s topline reading, with production declining by -7.6% y/y. “According to S&P Global, manufacturing sector activity in the Eurozone, a key trading partner of South Africa, weakened during November amid signs of renewed demand-side weakness. Globally, while global growth has proved more resilient than previously anticipated amongst heightened trade tensions, a number of risks to the global growth scenario remain which could weigh on steel demand.”

Hodes concluded that conversely, manganese ore and diamond output rose by a notable 17.0% y/y and 27.9% y/y respectively, adding a combined 1.5% to the headline number and preventing a larger annual decline.

BUSINESS REPORT