Seeff predicts strong housing recovery by 2026 as Cape shines while Gauteng lags

In a significant forecast for South Africa’s property sector, Samuel Seeff, chairman of the Seeff Property Group, has announced expectations for a robust recovery in the housing market by 2026.

With the Cape region asserting its dominance as a seller's market, Gauteng is projected to continue its struggles unless critical service delivery issues are addressed.

Seeff stated that the property landscape will wrap up 2025 on a firmer footing compared to prior years.

As economic fundamentals seem promising, the outlook for the next year remains relatively upbeat.

However, the market will evolve as a “tale of two markets,” where the Cape continues to flourish, while other regions, notably Gauteng, remain more favourable for buyers.

The Seeff Group is celebrating another record year in turnover, primarily fuelled by substantial sales in high-growth areas.

"We feel optimistic about the outlook for next year," he noted, citing a string of recent economic developments that could cultivate a favourable environment for growth in both the economy and property market.

The strengthening of stability and confidence stands as a cornerstone for recovery.

The anticipated outcome of the Local Government Elections next year is expected to further galvanise the market.

Seeff pointed to an uplift in confidence stemming from positive developments such as South Africa's exit from the FATF Grey List and an S&P credit rating upgrade. the first in two decades, as catalysts for property market enthusiasm.

Job growth and an improved economic forecast from both the Finance Minister and the Reserve Bank Governor further underpin these optimistic predictions.

Adding to the overall positive sentiment, the interest rate landscape is more encouraging than it has been in years.

Stability in the rand exchange rate, which neared the ZAR 17 to USD mark despite ongoing trade headwinds, has bolstered investor sentiment.

“We expect inflation, which has averaged just below 3.3% this year, to remain within the Reserve Bank's new lower target range of 2-4%. Consequently, we foresee at least two rate cuts in the first half of 2026,” Seeff said.

The series of interest rate reductions since mid-2024 has played a pivotal role in alleviating financial pressures on the economy and consumers.

For instance, the cost savings on a R1 million home loan over 20 years has fallen by over R1,000 since mid-2024, presenting a significant incentive for prospective buyers.

He explained that a recent cut of 25 basis points could translate to monthly savings of R168 on a R1,000,000 bond.

Support from banks is also evident, with quicker approval rates and concessions for qualifying buyers leading to enhanced demand, a win-win for sellers and a boost for overall sales.

National price growth shows an improvement, averaging about 4.5%, notably outpacing inflation, with the Cape leading at around 7%.

In contrast, Gauteng has struggled, witnessing meagre price growth of just 2% at best.

While the Cape remains a vibrant seller's market characterised by robust sales momentum and dwindling stock levels, Gauteng exemplifies a buyer's market with adequate stock levels yielding better value for discerning buyers.

Although buyers in Gauteng are met with an ample supply, Seeff said, "they can still discover excellent value."

Rental markets are set to continue their strong performance into 2026, bolstered by ongoing migrations to urban centres and larger towns. Positive rental growth is anticipated, and stock shortages in high-demand areas are expected to favour rental market investors.

For potential buyers and investors, Seeff's message is straightforward: hesitate no longer.

"Those who wait too long may regret not seizing the opportunity when it arises," he added.

With property prices on the verge of rising and a meaningful recovery on the horizon, now is the time to act.

BUSINESS REPORT