South Africa's wine grape harvest: A promising outlook for 2026

South Africa’s wine industry enters the 2026 harvest season with renewed confidence, as the first official crop estimate from private and producer-cellar growers points to another stable and promising year, South Africa Wine said on Wednesday.

For the second consecutive season, producers have been spared major weather disruptions such as flooding and frost, allowing vineyards to maintain the positive trajectory established in 2025.

South Africa Wine said the initial forecast suggests a slightly bigger harvest than the previous year. Notably, this improvement comes despite the ongoing shrinkage and ageing of the national vineyard surface area, now at 86 544 hectares. The trend reinforces a long-term structural shift: the removal of unproductive vineyards and their replacement with fit-for-purpose plantings designed for improved performance.

According to Dr Etienne Terblanche, Vinpro consultation services manager, the favourable outlook is based on stable weather patterns that enable vines to maintain their phenological rhythm.

“The vineyards benefited from moderate temperatures during the crucial bunch initiation period in 2025, followed by minimal disease pressure and healthy and active canopy conditions after harvest. Winter rainfall was close to long-term averages, and chill accumulation improved significantly, especially in regions where cold units are often limiting. Together, these conditions created a solid foundation for the uniform budding and good fertility we are seeing this season,” he said.

Warmer and drier conditions in spring advanced budding by approximately ten days compared to the previous year. Budding was reported as exceptionally uniform across most regions, aided by higher soil temperatures and sufficient chill during winter. While isolated late frost damage was recorded in some mountainous areas, the majority of South Africa’s vineyards remained unaffected.

Growth conditions throughout the season have been largely favourable. Warm, dry weather supported healthy vegetative growth and facilitated flowering, fertilisation, and set across many cultivars. Viticulturists expect improved bunch numbers in cultivars such as Chenin Blanc. At the same time, some late-ripening red varieties, including Cabernet Sauvignon and Ruby Cabernet, may experience looser set due to windy, warm conditions during their critical periods.

The primary constraint at this stage appears to be water availability, particularly in dryland regions like the Swartland and Cape Town, where summer rainfall has been minimal. Producers drawing solely from mountain catchment runoff have also reported lower irrigation stocks than last year. Still, many irrigation schemes and storage dams remain well-supplied and continue to operate according to plan.

Dr Terblanche notes that the coming months will be decisive.

“The fertility is clearly visible in the vineyards, but the extent of the final crop size will depend heavily on water resource availability. Conditions vary significantly between regions, so producers will need to use all available tools to monitor water status and manage ripening closely. If the current trend holds, we can expect a harvest similar to or slightly larger than the previous season,” he said.

Rico Basson, the CEO of South Africa Wine, emphasises the importance of a good, quality crop across all 10 wine regions, noting that such consistency is vital for strengthening the industry’s long-term competitiveness.

“With the national wine stock-to-sales ratio in equilibrium, the sector is better positioned to respond to market opportunities. Continued focused reinvestment in both vineyards and wineries is crucial for securing future supply and sustaining the positive momentum gained through consecutive stable seasons,” he said.

The industry remains firmly committed to driving value growth rather than relying solely on volume. “Strengthening price points, improving market positioning, and expanding revenue streams, including the growing wine tourism sector, are all key to building financial resilience across the wine value chain. Together, these efforts support a more sustainable and competitive future for South Africa’s wine industry,” Basson said.

South Africa Wine said with the 2026 harvest approaching, all eyes remain on late-season conditions and fruit development. For now, South Africa’s vineyards appear well-positioned to deliver another stable, quality-driven crop.

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