South Africa's 2024-25 summer grain and oilseed production forecast shows significant growth

The Crop Estimate Committee (CEC) 9th production estimate released a few days ago indicated that the 2024-25 summer grain and oilseeds production season was excellent. There has been a welcome reaction to this from the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz)

CEC added that the size of the expected commercial maize crop has been set at 16,325 mill. tons, which is 0.90% or 146,050 tons more than the previous forecast of 16,178 mill. tons. “The expected yield for maize is 6.29 t/ha. The estimated maize crop is 27.04% or 3,475 mill. tons larger than the 2024 crop. The three main maize producing areas, namely the Free State, Mpumalanga and North West provinces are expected to produce 82% of the 2025 crop.”

CEC said that the production forecast of white maize increased by 0.10% or 8,100 tons from 8,328 mill. tons to 8,336 mill. tons. “The area estimate for white maize is 1,600 mill. ha and the expected yield is 5.21 t/ha. In the case of yellow maize, the production forecast is 7,989 mill. tons, which is 1.76% or 137,950 tons more than the 7,851 mill. tons of the previous forecast. The area estimate for yellow maize is 997,000 ha and the yield is 8.01 t/ha.”

CEC added that the main reason for the increase in the production forecast for white and yellow maize is due to higher producer deliveries as reported by SAGIS. “The production forecast for sunflower seed remained unchanged at 708,300 tons. The area estimate for sunflower seed is 555,700 ha, while the expected yield is 1.27 t/ha.”

CEC said that the production forecast for soybeans also remained unchanged at 2,753 mill. tons. “The estimated area planted to soybeans is 1,151 mill. ha, with an expected yield of 2.39 t/ha. The expected groundnut crop remained unchanged at 61,389 tons. For groundnuts, the area estimate is 48,125 ha, with an expected yield of 1.28 t/ha. The production forecast for sorghum remained unchanged at 144,665 tons. The area estimate for sorghum is 41,150 ha and the expected yield is 3.52 t/ha.”

CEC added that in the case of dry beans, the production forecast remained unchanged at 90,556 tons. “The area estimate of dry beans is 45,620 ha, with an expected yield of 1.99 t/ha. The expected canola crop is 311,890 tons, which is 0.08% or 250 tons more than the previous month’s crop forecast of 311,640 tons.”

Wandile Sihlobo, the chief economist at Agbiz, said in its 9th production estimate, CEC lifted South Africa's 2024-25 production harvest by 1% from the September estimate to 20.08 million tonnes. “This figure comprises maize, soybean, sunflower seed, groundnuts, sorghum, and dry beans. The upward revision was mainly on maize, while other production estimates remained unchanged from the September figure. The current estimate for the 2024-25 summer grain and oilseed season is up 30% from the previous season.”

Sihlobo added that there is an annual uptick in all the crops, mainly supported by favourable summer rains and the decent area plantings. “The base effects also help, as we struggled with a drought last year that weighed on the harvest. This ample crop will likely continue to put downward pressure on prices, which bodes well for a moderating path of consumer food price inflation.” 

Sihlobo said the new 2025-26 production season is just starting and is shaping up to be excellent. “The farmers intend to plant 4.49 million hectares, up by 1% from the 2024-25 season we are ending. We will have a lot more to say about this new season in our upcoming notes, with views on possible harvest size. It suffices to say that we remain optimistic about another favourable season, given the expected La Niña rains.”

Sihlobo added that a closer look at the data reveals that South Africa's 2024-25 maize harvest is now at 16.32 million tonnes, 27% higher than the 2023-24 season's crop. “Importantly, these forecasts are well above South Africa's annual maize needs of approximately 12.00 million tonnes, indicating a surplus and continued net maize exports.”

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