Agricultural machinery sales surge points to rising farmer confidence

South Africa’s agricultural machinery market continued its upward momentum in September, signalling renewed confidence among farmers and a broadly positive outlook for the 2024–25 production season.

Data from the South African Agricultural Machinery Association (SAAMA) shows that 758 tractors were sold in September, up almost 15% from 660 units in the same month last year. Year-to-date tractor sales are now 22% higher than in 2024.

While combine harvester sales slipped to eight units in September from 17 units a year ago, cumulative sales for 2025 remain 17% ahead of last year’s pace.

"Winter crop predictions, with the exception of barley, are marginally up on last year," said Willie Human, chairperson of SAAMA.

"Looking ahead, weather predictions are that a weak La Niña will affect summer and winter cropping areas in the forthcoming few months. Current predictions are still that tractor sales will be between 10 and 15% more than last year. Combine harvester sales in 2025 also look as though they are going to be higher than last year." 

Francois Rossouw, CEO of Southern African Agri Initiative (Saai), said the strong tractor sales are a clear sign that farmers are still willing to invest — an indicator of confidence in both planting conditions and cash flow.

"The dip in September combined is timing noise; year-to-date they’re still up 17%, which backs the same story: growers expect crops worth harvesting," Rossouw said.

"With the Crop Estimates Committee pointing to a bigger summer crop than last year and a weak La Niña on the cards (normally favourable rain), the sales data reflects genuine optimism on the ground."

Rossouw cautioned, however, that strong sentiment does not necessarily translate to higher profits.

"Input costs, finance costs, and logistics still bite, and livestock remains under pressure in places. But on balance, machinery buying is a hard indicator and right now it says producers are gearing up, not pulling back," he said.

"The industry outlook for 2025 machinery remains 10–15% higher than last year, which aligns with what the market is already doing."

Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz), said that South Africa's agricultural machinery sales have remained reasonably robust since the start of 2025 and are likely to continue at this encouraging pace throughout the year.

“More specifically, tractor sales have increased for the past nine consecutive months, while combine harvester sales have only cooled in the last four months, having started on a solid momentum,” he said.

Sihlobo added that the recent data for September 2025 also paints a mixed picture. For example, tractor sales are up 15% y/y, with 758 units sold.

“The combine harvester sales were down by 53%, with only eight units sold. The soft sales in combine harvester sales are not a significant concern, given the higher volume of sales in the past few months. Importantly, the cumulative sales of combine harvesters for the first eight months of 2025 are up 17% from the corresponding period in 2024, with 180 units sold.”

Sihlobo said that the increase in agricultural machinery sales primarily reflects the positive sentiment in the sector regarding the 2024-25 field crop, horticulture, and wine grape harvest, supported by the favourable weather conditions.

“It also signals optimism about the season ahead. For example, the Crop Estimates Committee forecasts the 2024-25 summer grains and oilseeds harvest at 19.94 million tons, up 28% y/y. South African sugar production for the 2024-25 production season is forecast to recover by 7% y/y to 2.09 million tons. South Africa's wine grape harvest was 1.244 million tons, an 11% recovery from 2024,” added Sihlobo.

“The South African Table Grape Industry has also posted some upbeat production figures, and there are encouraging production data from citrus, various fruits, and vegetables. In essence, we expect South Africa's agricultural machinery to remain strong this year.” 

BUSINESS REPORT