South Africa's agriculture poised for a strong 2025-26 season due to La Niña

Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz) said that there are early indications that 2025-26 may be another strong production season for South Africa's agriculture due to La Niña-induced rains.

Wandile Sihlobo, Chief Economist at Agbiz, said that this comes  as we emerge from a solid 2024-25 season characterised by ample harvests in various crops, fruits, and vegetables, and a better grazing veld, supported by the favourable La Niña-induced rains.

“Looking to the upcoming season, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), which we have long leaned on for forecasts, released its monthly update on September 19, indicating an increased possibility of La Niña occurrence from October through to early next year.”

Sihlobo added that the IRI forecast indicates a moderate probability (56%) of La Niña conditions developing during September to November 2025.

“These La Niña conditions are expected to persist through December 2025 to February 2026, and weaken from March 2026 onwards. Ordinarily, La Niña brings above-normal rainfall in South Africa and the entire Southern Africa region, which would support agricultural activity.”

Sihlobo said that in the past, a La Niña has typically been followed by an El Niño, which brings below-normal rainfall and negatively impacts the agricultural sector.

“But more recently, we have witnessed some prolonged periods of La Niña rains. A case in point is the period from 2020 to 2023, during which South Africa and the entire Southern Africa region experienced La Niña rains. The early projections suggest that we are on a path to experiencing a second consecutive season of La Niña rains.”

Sihlobo added that, as is the case with any forecast, there is some uncertainty around the timing and intensity.

“Across South Africa, farmers will start preparing the land for various crops in the coming weeks. One that typically receives much attention is grains and oilseeds, as they are mainly rainfed (90%), with the rest under irrigation. The promising weather outlook will likely encourage farmers to plant a decent area for crops. In the 2024-25 season, which is on its tail end, farmers planted 4.44 million hectares of summer grains and oilseeds.”

Sihlobo said that this was slightly higher than the previous season.

"Because of the above-average rainfall, the sector was able to have an estimated summer grains and oilseeds harvest of 19.55 million tonnes (up 26% year-on-year). It does appear to us that farmers are gearing up for the next season. One of the indicators we monitor to assess the readiness for the upcoming season is tractor sales. We have observed that South Africa's tractor sales have increased for the past eight consecutive months.”

Sihlobo added that the recent data for August also paints an upbeat picture. “For example, the tractor sales are up 22% year-on-year, with 700 units sold. Indeed, the increase in tractor sales partly reflects the positive sentiment in the sector regarding the 2024-25 field crop, horticulture, and wine grape harvest. Still, we cannot discount the likelihood that farmers are buying more tractors because they are upbeat about the upcoming season.”

BUSINESS REPORT