South Africa sees a 26% surge in agricultural exports to the US amidst tariff concerns

South Africa’s agricultural exports to the United States surged by 26% in the second quarter of 2025, reaching $161 million (R2.7 billion), despite ongoing concerns over potential tariff hikes and market access.

Data from the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz) on Tuesday showed that the increase was driven largely by citrus, wine, fruit juices, and nuts—products that traditionally dominate South Africa’s shipments to the US.

Wandile Sihlobo, Agbiz chief economist, said the surge may reflect exporters taking advantage of the 90-day pause on higher tariffs.

“It appears that some exporters may have taken advantage of the 90-day pause on the higher tariffs and exported more volume than usual during that period,” he said.

“The fact that South Africa generally has a large fruit harvest also contributed to this enormous increase, which far surpassed the average typical quarterly growth in exports to the US, which is about 9%.”

Sihlobo also highlighted that the rise underscored the importance of the US market for some producers, while it remains somewhat smaller from a national perspective.

He said that since the start of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa), the percentage share of South Africa’s agricultural exports to the US has remained at these levels.

"From now on, a great deal hinges on whether South Africa succeeds in securing favourable trade terms with the US. The future performance of the exports to the US will rely mainly on the success of the ongoing conversations between the two countries,” he said.

Sihlobo said South Africa has a growing sector that requires more export markets in the future; thus, this issue of export diversification was more urgent right now.

He said the emphasis within the BRICS grouping should be on the need to lower import tariffs and address artificial phytosanitary barriers that hinder deeper trade within this grouping. 

“Our primary focus is to work diligently to maintain our existing markets in the EU, Africa, Asia, the Middle East, and the Americas. It is also crucial for South Africa to expand market access to some key BRICS countries, such as China, India, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt,” Sihlobo said.

“The discussion in BRICS should move beyond the general rhetoric of intentions to meaningful trade arrangements.”

Jaco Minnaar, president of Agri SA, said that he agrees with Agbiz that the bigger crop was a big contributor, as well as industries trying to get products into the US before tariffs were imposed.

“The 90-day extension helped with this. Markets are fluent, and products are flowing to markets with the least resistance, but they keep flowing/moving. As our products are very seasonal, we will have to have a whole year's data to really see the effects of the tariffs,” he said.

Minnaar added that we are not seeing too big of an effect yet. “New or alternate markets are being actively sought by industries, and the negotiations with the U.S. are also ongoing behind the scenes. Only time will tell the long-term effect.”

TLU SA general manager, Bennie van Zyl, said that he was convinced that people with that 90-day period will utilise it for their own benefit. 

“If the normal market used to be the American market, they will use that and actually export to the United States as much as they can before the tariffs become a reality,” he said.

“At this stage, there are official groupings in the United States as well as a lot of civilian groupings trying to get a better deal with the United States regarding this 30%.”

BUSINESS REPORT