Exploring the growth of South Africa's agricultural exports amid global challenges

Over the previous year, South Africa maintained its robust export growth of agricultural products in international markets reaching a new record of $13.7 billion (R245bn) in 2024. This was equivalent to a year-on-year (y/y) growth rate of 4% compared to a record $13.2bn observed in 2023.

South Africa’s continued export growth is largely underscored by collaborative efforts of both government and industry in maintaining good relations with existing markets and opening of new markets. In addition, efforts to adhere to export requirements such as pre-export controls, sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) requirements among other things have contributed to the sustained export growth of South Africa’s agricultural products.

As of quarter one (Q1) of 2025, data from the International Trade Centre Trade Map shows that South Africa’s agricultural exports maintained its growth trajectory, increasing by 6% to a value of $3.4bn from $3.2bn in Q4 of 2024. This is equivalent to a 10% increase compared to the same period (Q1) in 2024.

Fresh grapes were the leading exported commodity during this period accounting for a share of 21% of total agricultural exports in value terms, followed by maize (7%), fresh apples and pears (3%), plums and sloes (3%), wine (3%), and wool (3%), among others.

The African continent maintained its position as South Africa’s leading export destination for agricultural products, representing a share of 45% in value terms, despite recording a 10% decline compared to Q4 in 2024. The European Union (EU) accounted for a share of 23% followed by Asia (16%), the UK (8%), Americas (6%) with the US specifically accounting for 4% of South Africa’s agricultural exports.

In terms of imports, South Africa’s agricultural imports declined by 5% to a value of $1.9bn compared to the previous quarter. The main contributors to this contraction were led by a sizable reduction in imports of apple juice which contracted by approximately 42%, followed by frozen poultry meat (34%), whiskies (26%), animal feed preparations (25%), and milled rice (21%), among others. Palm oil was the leading imported commodity representing 8% of total imports, despite recording a decline of 8% compared to the previous quarter.

Other leading imported agricultural products were wheat and meslin (8%), followed by milled rice (7%), maize (6%), raw sugarcane (3%), and food preparations (3%), among others.

During this period, China was the leading source destination for South Africa’s agricultural imports along with Argentina, Brazil, Thailand, Eswatini, Indonesia all with a share of 6%. Followed by the US (5%), Malaysia (4%), France (4%), and India (4%).

Although the sector continues to expand its export footprint globally, it remains prone to global disruptions due to geopolitics, disease outbreaks, and climate change, and stringent non-tariff barriers in key markets.

For instance, currently the country is battling with the outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD), with cases of outbreaks mainly reported KwaZulu-Natal and a few cases in Mpumalanga and Gauteng provinces. These reported outbreaks led to China suspending imports of cloven hoofed animals and related products from South Africa. Although the preliminary information suggests that the ban only includes imports of beef from the whole of South Africa.

In 2024, China was the leading market for frozen beef exports with a share of 27% followed by United Arab Emirates (12%) and Egypt (12%), among others. On the other hand, South African government has recently banned importation of poultry related products from Brazil due to the reported cases of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) from this region.

In 2024, Brazil was the leading supplier of poultry meat to South Africa, with a share of about 81% of total imports. According to the World Animal Health Organisation, due to the new HPAI season which started in October 2024, about 59 outbreaks were reported in poultry and 44 outbreaks in non-poultry birds and in mammals in the Americas, Asia and Europe as of May 2025. About 3.76 million poultry birds had been reported death or culled during this month, and these were mostly in Asia.

Moreover, the country’s agricultural trade is currently subject to uncertainty in one of its key markets, the US. In April 2025, the US administration announced a 10% tariff on all imports to the US and additional reciprocal tariffs for several of countries, including 30% for South Africa. These developments raised speculations about South Africa’s potential exclusion from benefiting on Agoa, which enabled the country to relish duty free access to this market for majority of agricultural products since year 2000.

The US is a crucial market for South Africa’s agricultural exports such as citrus (oranges and soft citrus), nuts, raisins, and wine, among others. These new proposed tariffs will definitely have negative economic ramifications on the country’s overall agriculture trade. South Africa's response to these challenges will be key in determining the sustainability of the sector and its global trade standing in the future.

It is important to adopt collaborative actions towards maintaining good relations with the rest of the world while also diversifying exports towards other high potential markets to minimize the risks. Hence, negotiating bilateral trade and regional agreements and/or protocols remains essential. Controlling disease outbreaks is crucial in ensuring that the industry maintains good reputation in international markets while also preventing bans against the industry’s exports. Therefore, there is a need to increase efforts towards investing in animal and plant disease controls, infrastructure and improving port operations are crucial for driving exports.

Bhekani Zondo is an economist under the Trade Research Unit at the National Agricultural Marketing Council. Dr Solly Molepo is a manager at the Trade Research Unit at the National Agricultural Marketing Council.

BUSINESS REPORT