SIPHAMANDLA ZONDI
The EFF leadership thinks there is a plan to manage defections by staggering them over time. For them, this is dishonesty. It is an unfair attempt to sustain a narrative of an EFF that is bleeding.
We do not know if it is true but definitely the EFF is in an awkward position of having to defend and redefine itself on changing dynamics. South African party politics have changed in significant ways since the emergence of the MKP.
But this is not the first appearance of some realignment of politics happening. When Zuma rose to leadership, the governing ANC movement went through such a rocky period that changed much in our politics. The emergence of COPE garnering over a million votes in 2009 was a major signal of re-alignment of a sort. But this did not last because COPE came apart.
When the EFF movement was born also in 2012, it represented a tremor in our body politics. It definitely saw youth from the left wing assume a greater role in formal politics and caused the governing party awkward moments and changed the main opposition - with its more militant brand of opposition ongoing. Our parliamentary politics changed with the emergence of the EFF in both positive and negative ways.
Now the May 2024 elections have also ushered in another moment suggestive of a re-alignment of some sort. The Zuma factor and the MKP have changed a lot. It brought an end to the ANC’s 30-year sole rule by the ANC and helped contain the growth of the IFP which ended up with only 18% in its power base in KwaZulu-Natal. It accounts for the EFF not growing nationally and declining in KZN.
The MKP is made up of a lot of ANC supporters. Now it is attracting some leaders and members of the EFF. This threatens to kill the progressive caucus formed by key opposition parties with the MKP and the EFF among them. These defections from the EFF to the MKP soil the relationship between the two movements. It divides them.
The loss of the EFF Deputy President, Floyd Shivambu, is a major boost for the MKP. It is evident already in the policy positions, political messaging, and the building of structures happening in the MKP. It was a huge loss for the EFF since Shivambu was key to its sharp policy focus and strategy development. Now, the movement's former chairperson, Dali Mpofu, has also defected to the MKP.
The EFF did not lose a large number of voters or members with the departures so far because the prominent figures who defected are not so much a numbers game than the quality of ideas and stature figures. The MKP has a leader who commands numbers but needs workhorses to give guidance to the structure building and messaging. This is what they have gained.
Suddenly the young MKP has more brainpower than older parties. It is becoming more polished in its public conduct, despite many mishaps. It has gained members with experience in politics, business and the public sector. It has attracted business people and some middle-class figures. It is clear the new movement is planning for the 2026 and 2029 elections.
It is not clear how long the MKP will avert internal squabbles and jostling for positions. It probably is aware of the need to avert the COPE scenario of internal strife in the first two years of its life. It has an option of following the EFF and the UDM option of strong democratic centralism managing dissent tightly. It cannot avoid an elective conference with all its risks for too long.
The difficult relationship between the EFF and the MKP is something to watch carefully. How the EFF responds to this can make or break both the progressive caucus and the EFF itself. If it spends too much energy throwing tantrums over those who voluntarily left, it would miss the opportunity to continue a reset in the EFF posture that has been visible since before the election. This is remaking the red movement into a disciplined party of superior arguments rather than ructions and insults. It was a necessary transition and one the movement was ready for anyway.
The MKP should know that the quicker it sets up structures on the ground and stabilise its leadership collective, the more likely it can sustain its momentum till 2029 and beyond. Its new Secretary-General has sent helpful signals for the new movement, such as saying he is about building and strengthening party structures. The new party seems very busy all over the country either building local leadership structures or simply introducing itself to communities and indigenous authorities.
It seems inevitable that the EFF and the MKP will find each other both for survival or to seize the strategic vacuum left by the setback the ANC suffered. They may be forced to put aside irritation caused by the EFF defections and focus on what they can achieve together.
Coalition politics is not a politics of emotions but one of strategies and alignment of strategic interests. The progressive caucus established that these parties have shared interests, posture and strategic ends.
Maturity will be needed to harness this for the next elections. But political maturity is not common in our politics.
Professor Siphamandla Zondi is the Director of the Institute for Pan African Thought and Conversation.
***The views expressed here are not necessarily those of Independent Media or IOL.***
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