Mining output remained flat in 2025 after iron ore, manganese offset PGMs, coal weakness

South Africa’s mining sector ended 2025 on a marginally firmer footing, with total production rising by just 0.1% compared with 2024, as gains in iron ore and manganese helped offset declines in platinum group metals (PGMs), coal and gold.

This marked a moderate slowdown from the 0.6% growth in mining production recorded in 2024. 

Data from Statistics South Africa (StatsSA) on Thursday, mining production increased by 2.5% year-on-year in December 2025, rebounding from a downwardly revised 2.4% contraction in November.

The improvement was largely driven by strong performances in manganese ore and iron ore.

Manganese ore output surged by 40.4% year-on-year in December, up from 16.7% in November, while iron ore production jumped 19%, reversing November’s 7.6% decline. Other metallic minerals rose by 27.3%, nickel by 26.6%, chromium ore by 15.5%, and other non-metallic minerals by 10.4%.

However, the gains were tempered by sharp declines in key commodities. Diamond production plunged 35.8%, PGMs fell 7.7%, coal declined 5.7%, and copper slipped 1.5% year-on-year in December.

On a seasonally adjusted month-on-month basis, mining production decreased by 1.2% in December, following a revised 5.7% decline in November, pointing to ongoing volatility in output.

Jean-Pierre Terblanche, Principal Survey Statistician at StatsSA, said the December data marked the conclusion of the calendar year results.

"Iron ore was the largest positive contributor, expanding by 3.0% and contributing 0.5% of a percentage point to overall growth," Terblanche said.

"Manganese ore, diamonds, chromium ore and nickel were also positive. On the downside, the industry produced less copper, platinum group metals, gold and coal in 2025."

On a month-on-month basis, seasonally adjusted mining production declined by 1.2% in December compared with a month-on-month decline of 5.4% in November and a 2.5% in October.

Investec economist Lara Hodes noted that while mining production rose by 2.5% year-on-year at the end of the fourth quarter, the broader quarterly picture was less encouraging.

“Measured on a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted basis, output fell by 0.5% in the final quarter,” Hodes said.

Eight of the 12 categories in the mining basket increased in December compared with the same period in 2024.

However, PGMs and coal — which together account for 53.4% of the mining basket — contracted, detracting a notable 3.9 percentage points from December’s headline figure and limiting a stronger overall outcome.

"We expect a modest acceleration in mining production in 2026, underpinned by favourable commodity prices, a stable global growth environment, and easing energy and logistics constraints," said Thanda Sithole, FNB senior economist. 

"However, continued geopolitical tensions, as well as trade policy uncertainty and tariffs, could constrain mining activity." 

Globally, growth has remained more resilient than previously anticipated despite heightened trade tensions. Nevertheless, risks to global growth persist, including escalating geopolitical tensions.

The World Bank has cautioned that metals production remains vulnerable to unexpected disruptions from extreme weather, regulatory changes, energy or water shortages, operational challenges and labour disputes — issues that continue to weigh on South Africa’s mining industry.

Earlier this week, the mining industry said partnerships between the private sector and government were starting to yield the changes the country needs to unlock economic growth.

The Minerals Council South Africa has stressed that policy certainty and a collaborative approach between government and industry are critical to building a more conducive regulatory and operating environment to unlock stronger growth in the sector.

However, Mzila Mthenjane, CEO of the Minerals Council South Africa, said the sector remains constrained by regulatory and operational bottlenecks that need urgent attention to unlock its full potential by attracting long-term and sustainable investment in exploration and mines.

Mthenjane said the underlying structural reforms, particularly in electricity around the creation of a separate transmission company to own and manage the grid, to ensure the introduction of the private sector in energy generation and participation on railways and at harbours, must not be delayed or changed because it will damage the green shoots of positive sentiment emerging towards South Africa.

“South Africa’s mineral endowment is extraordinary. With the right reforms, strong partnerships and policy certainty, we can attract investment, create jobs and build a globally competitive mining sector that benefits all South Africans,” Mthenjane said.

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