SA tourism recovery lags global and regional competitors despite rising international arrivals

South Africa welcomed 5.85 million international tourists between January and July 2025, a 14% increase on the same period last year.

While the figure brings the country within 1% — or just 33 000 visitors — of its 2019 pre-pandemic peak, analysts have warned that the apparent recovery masks deeper structural challenges that demand immediate attention.

According to the BDO South Africa’s Tourism Trends Report released on Wednesday, global tourism returned to pre-pandemic levels in 2024, growing more than 12%.

Lee-Anne Bac, advisory partner for tourism at BDO South Africa, said South Africa’s recovery has been far slower, with arrivals expanding just 5.1% in 2024, leaving the country 13% behind its 2019 performance.

"More troubling still, we've ceded ground to our African competitors. Kenya returned to 2019 levels in 2023, Tanzania exceeded them in 2022 with 18% growth in 2024, and Morocco, now Africa's leading destination with 17.4 million arrivals in 2024, achieved 20% growth," Bac said.

According to BDO South Africa, the most concerning trend lies in the overseas tourism performance, the industry’s most lucrative segment due to high per-visitor spending.

With just 1.3 million overseas arrivals in the first seven months of 2025, South Africa is tracking 10% behind 2019 levels and 12% behind 2018 figures.

"This translates to stark economic losses. The 183 000 "lost" overseas visitors have cost South Africa approximately R4.3 billion in direct foreign spending for the first seven months of 2025 alone," Bac said.

"For the full year 2024, the shortfall in overseas visitors resulted in a staggering R13.3bn loss in foreign direct expenditure, export earnings lost to our economy when we need them most."

According to the report, China remains the weakest market, with only 23 600 arrivals so far this year — just 44% of 2019 levels, despite the government launching the Trusted Tour Operator Scheme in February.

Arrivals from India are still 27% below 2019, while European markets remain subdued: France has recovered to 79% of 2019 levels, Germany to 87%, and Italy to 90%. Even the United States, South Africa’s largest overseas source market, grew only 3% year-on-year.

By contrast, African markets have provided the strongest growth. The country received 4.55 million arrivals from the continent in the first seven months of 2025 — 118 000 more than in 2019.

Bac said policy and air connectivity have played a decisive role. Visitor numbers from Ghana doubled after the mutual removal of visa requirements, while arrivals from Kenya exceeded 2019 levels by 58% last year.

However, other key African markets remain weak. Angola and Nigeria are down 40% and 39% respectively compared with 2019, while Egypt is 11% behind and Uganda 9% lower.

According to the report, Cape Town International Airport has emerged as a bright spot.

Overseas air arrivals there were 21% higher than 2019 levels in the first seven months of 2025, supported by the city’s Air Access Strategy. By contrast, OR Tambo International Airport in Johannesburg remains 21% below pre-pandemic performance.

BDO cautioned that Cape Town’s success has largely shifted arrivals within the country rather than increasing South Africa’s total market share.

Hotel data reflects the uneven recovery. Cape Town’s five-star properties recorded average room rates 41% above 2019 levels in real terms, with revenue per available room (RevPAR) rising to R4 000 from R2 100 in 2019.

In contrast, Sandton’s five-star hotels saw RevPAR slump to R1 100, with rates 20% below 2019 levels.

Four-star hotels in Cape Town achieved 40% real growth in room rates compared with 2019, while KwaZulu-Natal’s properties remain 14% lower. Three-star hotels outside Cape Town face the toughest conditions, with RevPAR down 45% in Sandton and 17% in KZN.

Bac warned that South Africa was risking losing its competitive edge without decisive policy interventions.

"The tourism sector must recognise it operates within a broader economy. Challenges require economy-wide solutions supported by all economic sectors. Tourism cannot recover in isolation from manufacturing weakness, energy constraints, or governance challenges," she said.

"Most critically, we must position tourism at our economy's centre, recognising its unique capacity to create employment opportunities across skill levels. The sector's multiplier effect on job creation, foreign exchange earnings, and regional development makes it indispensable to South Africa's economic recovery."

BDO's recommendations include a Brand South Africa campaign to counter negative perceptions abroad; an Air Access Development Fund to expand routes to high-potential markets; stronger public-private partnerships to address crime and urban decay, renewed focus on business tourism and economic growth; and product innovation to diversify visitor experiences.

BUSINESS REPORT