Airbnb shares posted their biggest-ever decline Wednesday after the vacation home-rental company gave a cautious outlook for revenue, suggesting rising prices and a murky economic outlook are beginning to weigh on consumer appetite for trips.
The shares fell as much as 14% as the market opened in New York, the biggest decline since the company went public in December 2020. They had gained almost 50% so far this year through the close of trading on Tuesday.
The San Francisco-based home-sharing company expects revenue of $2.35 billion to $2.45 billion in the three months ending in June, representing an increase of 12% to 16% from a year earlier and its slowest pace of growth yet. Analysts were projecting $2.4 billion, according to a Bloomberg survey. Airbnb said it expects earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization, excluding some costs, to be similar to the second quarter last year.
Airbnb had benefited over the past few years from shifts in work and lifestyle due to the pandemic. But the post-Covid rush to travel is losing steam, and some consumers are reining in leisure budgets amid persisting inflation and an unsteady economy. Airbnb said the number of nights and experiences booked in the current period will look unfavorable compared with a year ago, when there was a surge in demand following the outbreak of the Covid-19 Omicron variant. As a result, the company expects year-over-year growth in nights and experiences booked to increase at a slower pace in the second quarter than revenue.
"We always want to be cautious, we want to exceed expectations," Chief Executive Officer Brian Chesky said in an interview on Bloomberg TV on Wednesday, explaining why the second-quarter outlook is less optimistic. "But at the end of the day, people still want to travel and Airbnb has a super resilient model."
The forecast came on the heels of a quarter that set records in several metrics. Revenue in the three months ended March 31 increased 20% to $1.82 billion, Airbnb's highest ever for that period. That compares with analysts' estimates of $1.79 billion. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization were $262 million, better than Wall Street's estimates and also a record first quarter. Earnings per share were 18 cents, while analysts were expecting 17 cents.
Companies from airlines to hotels have been increasing prices as consumers have so far shown a willingness to pay. Personal consumption expenditures were up 3.7% in the first three months of this year, the most in almost two years. But people may be starting to draw the line. Bank failures, a rising rate of inflation, elevated mortgage payments and a softening labor market, especially in high-income sectors such as tech, could see tourists start to pull back on spending.
Airbnb said in the first-quarter average daily rates were $168, about the same "sustained elevated," level from a year ago. Price appreciation was offset by the impact of foreign exchange, people's willingness to pay, and a shift in bookings into urban and other types of rentals. But Airbnb sees "slightly lower" daily rates in the second quarter, in part due to new host pricing tools introduced last week and the shift to more urban rentals.
Chief Executive Officer Brian Chesky said in an interview last week that the strong demand he's expecting for this summer could be even better if not for the economic uncertainty. Airline prices are still expensive, he noted, and "when the cost of flights goes up, that impacts our business."
Airbnb's results follow robust results and optimistic commentary from its online travel peers. Booking and Expedia reported double-digit increases in gross bookings in the first quarter. Booking, whose properties include restaurant reservation platform OpenTable and discounted flight website Priceline, said bookings reached the "highest quarterly levels ever." Expedia Chief Executive Officer Peter Kern said there'd been "a structural change in how consumers are thinking of spending and travel is at the top of the list."
Analysts at Atlantic Equities noted that slower growth at Airbnb is set to raise competitive concerns with Booking. Norwalk, Conn.-based Booking also lists alternative accommodations on its website, from apartments to cabins and villas, and has been pushing more into the space. "Booking's momentum in alternatives is currently greater than that of Airbnb," the analysts wrote. Expedia's Vrbo platform also competes with Airbnb in home-rental listings.
In a call with investors to discuss results, Chesky said price affordability is the top priority for Airbnb. He said the hope is that the substantial supply on the platform will help ease price pressures.
Airbnb has been taking steps to keep prices on rentals from exploding. The company rolled out more than 50 new features and upgrades in part to increase price transparency and affordability. In an effort to ensure the platform has places to stay at reasonable prices, the company launched Airbnb Rooms with an average rate of $67 per night. Guests stay in homes with hosts and share common spaces like living rooms, kitchens and backyards. Airbnb is also implementing a series of changes including lower fees, adding the ability to pay in installments through a new partnership with Klarna Bank, and a new discount tool for hosts to offer the best deals.
The company also announced Tuesday that it authorized a new share repurchase program of as much as $2.5 billion.
WASHINGTON POST