The PGM industry is currently positioning itself for a structural shift driven by supply deficits, steady demand growth and constrained new production.
Image: File
Tawanda Karombo
Chief executives of South Africa’s platinum group metals (PGM) miners say prices need to climb to around $2,000–$2,500 per ounce before the sector can justify major new investments, including greenfield projects and expanded processing capacity.
This comes as platinum and palladium prices remain volatile. Platinum futures recently fell 6.82% to $1,916 per ounce, while palladium dropped 6.35% to $1,439. Despite the pullback, prices have recovered in recent months from multi-year lows that previously forced producers to freeze capital expenditure and shut down some shafts.
Speaking at the 2026 PGM Industry Day in Johannesburg, Valterra Platinum CEO Craig Miller said PGM prices have to stabilise higher to justify new projects. This was because the PGM industry operated on a value versus volume evaluation.
“We need a price of $2,000 to $2,500 to incentivise new greenfields projects and we need these process sustained in the long-term to achieve the 10% return we seek,” Miller said.
Impala Platinum CEO Nico Muller pointed out that investments in new production are unlikely until the industry invests in additional processing capacity, stressing that unless there is a market for PGM, anything the sector does is futile.
Muller said he believed that processing capacity as well as research and development were key areas of possible collaboration.
The SA PGM CEOs are optimistic that the sector has clambered back to one of its strongest positions over the past 10 years, with the outlook for prices stronger.
“Platinum is back, not as a legacy metal but as a strategic future metal,” stated Bernard Swanepoel, CEO of Sibanye-Stillwater.
He added: “PGMs remain relevant but the industry requires long-term action. Consistency matters more than intent so, the real question is not about price, or even demand, but about whether we are building the industry the world will need, or are we running down the one we inherited?”
Paul Dunne, CEO of Northam Platinum, said the SA mining industry had a “potentially good decade ahead of us for hard commodities in general across the world, and in particular in PGMs.”
He, however, warned that as long as there is policy and legislative uncertainty, the risk is imputed on the system, which is effectively increasing cost of capital, delays projects that may otherwise moved along by now.
Other panelists such as Marna Cloete, President and CEO of Ivanhoe Mines; Roger Baxter, the executive chairman of Southern Palladium; and Jacques van der Bijl, chief operations officer for African Rainbow Minerals; said there are opportunities for the PGM sector to collaborate on upping processing and refining capacity.
Sibanye-Stillwater and Valterra Platinum have joined hands in a collaborative effort with Johnson Matthey, the specialist global metals chemistry company, to develop high impact technologies pivoted on platinum commodities.
This collaborative effort with Johnson Matthey will enable Sibanye-Stillwater and Valterra Platinum to explore new sources of industrial growth and long-term demand for PGMs.
Jakob Fleischman, partner with McKinsey & Company, also supported a positive outlook for the industry despite a tint of volatility in some forecasts at a time there is growing interest in PGM to replace highly-priced gold.
The PGM industry is currently positioning itself for a structural shift driven by supply deficits, steady demand growth and constrained new production although the largest producers in South Africa are not rushing into new investments, collaboration or placing bets on emerging new technology.
PGM use in catalytic converters currently accounts for about 60% of global demand, playing a key role in reducing harmful emissions from internal combustion engines. New collaboration efforts are seeking to significantly broaden the application base for these metals, leveraging their exceptional performance, durability and strong circular supply chains.
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